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by Simon, 2009-11-27 01:16:44Premiership Tips - 28th - 29th November 2009
28 November 2009
Blackburn (1.95) Draw (3.4) Stoke (4.5)
Not the greatest of fixtures to start us off. Blackburn broke their duck last week beating Bolton away but then were beat 3-0 away from home. From the match report that scored flattered Fulham a little. At home their record is totally different. Unbeaten since the first day of the season and winning their last 4. Stoke rode their luck a little last week. If Portsmouth would have scored their penalty then they maybe would have gone on and won that game but as it was, Stoke nicked a 1-0 victory. Stoke haven't has the bad away form this year, 1-3-2 with the defeats at Liverpool and Hull. I am not too happy with the price of 1.95 at Boylesport on Blackburn but it will be my bet. Can't really go against a team that have won their last 4 games.
Fulham (1.91) Draw (3.5) Bolton (4.5)
After a poor start against Blackburn, Fulham went on to win 3-0. Only 1 defeat in 7 now for Fulham who sit in 10th place. Bolton's little revival has come off the rails. They are not just getting beat, they are getting mullered by teams. 11 goals conceded in their last 3 games. Odds were 2.0 for Fulham at William Hill. They have dropped now to 1.91 but if you are a shop punter, you can always go in to a William Hill betting shop and get even money. This is a much better bet than Blackburn to beat Stoke where the odds are lower.
Manchester City (1.3) Draw (5.5) Hull (13)
Another draw for Man City, 6 in a row now. I am not going to be backing them this week at 1.3. Hull are looking like how they were at the start of last season. They were 3-0 up against Everton midweek but hanging on a little at the end. As I said, I will not be backing a team that has drawn 6 in a row at 1.3. I'll not go big on this but Hull double chance (meaning Hull or the draw) at 4.0 is a nice bet at William Hill.
Portsmouth (10) Draw (5) Manchester United (1.4)
Portsmouth have a caretaker manager for this game. Grant has wisely opted to start the week after. Many times you have seen Portsmouth just being unlucky rather than bad, like last week with the missed penalty at Stoke. Man U are a lucky side so I expect to win this. Odds are 1.4 at bluesquare.
West Ham (1.83) Draw (3.75) Burnley (4.8)
West Ham threw away a 2-0 lead at Hull last week, eventually drawing 3-3. That makes it only 2 wins in 13. Relegation form. Burnley were unlucky not to take all 3 points from Villa last weekend. Before then they picked up their first away point of the season against Man City. Looking at the form, I cannot see how West Ham are odds on. I can see Burnley getting something from this. You can get Burnley +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.1 at bet365.
Wigan (2.5) Draw (3.5) Sunderland (2.9)
I couldn't have been more wrong about Wigan last weekend. Terrible game for them, losing 9-1. Some bad defending and excellent Spurs play were the cause. Sunderland upped their game and managed to take all 3 points from Arsenal. I remember when they beat Liverpool 1-0, they went on to lose the next game 2-1 to Birmingham. I think I will go to Wigan here. Teams usually bounce back from mega defeats. Odds are 2.5 at Ladbrokes
Aston Villa (2.55) Draw (3.4) Tottenham (3)
This is a very important game in the battle for 4th place. This season, Villa have been better at home than away. They were lucky to get a point at Burnley last week. Spurs come here on the back off a 9-1 crushing of Wigan. Any result wouldn't be a surprise here. I am leaning towards Spurs but I think the bet to have is Defoe to score anytime. Its 2.88 at and you get 10% cashback if the bet loses (well overall cashback if you lose in the month).
29 November 2009
Wolverhampton (2.5) Draw (3.3) Birmingham (3.2)
Wolves have had a tough time, losing 4-1 and 4-0 to Arsenal and Chelsea respectively. Birmingham are on a good run. 2 wins and 2 draws, with some impressive teams in there, Man City, Liverpool, Fulham and Sunderland. I said earlier that teams tend to bounce back after heavy defeats but I don't think Wolves have the quality to do that. This local derby game is X2 for me. I'll go for the draw, Odds are 3.3 at Boylesport
Everton (3.75) Draw (3.4) Liverpool (2.25)
If it wasn't for the midweek performance, Everton would be thinking they could get something out of this. The performance at Hull was terrible, 3-0 down at half time. Hull let them back in with an own goal and a penalty but Everton still lost 3-2. Liverpool are on a bad run too. Not qualifying for the last 16 of the Champions League was a big blow for them. Torres will be an important factor in this game. I guess if he's not playing, I'll go for the draw but if he is, then the Liverpool win. I'll have to check the team sheet before placing any bet on this.
Arsenal (2.75) Draw (3.4) Chelsea (2.75)
Arsenal missed Van Persie last week, losing to Sunderland 1-0. He's still out this weekend. They have been in good form but they have lost their 3 biggest tests of the season so far. Ok, to be fair they did beat Spurs 3-0. Chelsea are a different proposition though. Since losing to Villa, they've gone on a 4 win streak, not conceding a single goal. Bookies cannot split the teams, Skybet and Coral have gone with Chelsea, Bet365 and William Hill have gone with Arsenal and Ladrokes and Betfred have them priced exactly the same. Personally, I cannot see past a Chelsea win here. Hills have gone even money for a draw not bet Chelsea. This is a great price with the money back if its a draw. Get a free £25 bet with William Hill
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