Fixed Football (soccer games)

This is a topic that generates a lot of discussion in certain parts of the internet. Most notably in Telegram Groups and Discord servers. It’s mainly people trying to sell you fixed games. I’ve never actually followed up with actually buying one of these fixed games, but I strongly suspect that they are a scam. The bets slips are likely to have been doctored after a result has come in. You don’t even know how to use photoshop nowadays, you can just inspect a page and just edit the html to say your bet was a winner.

Why would anyone sell fixed tips?

At first glance, this is quite compelling but there is actually a good reason why people who ‘know’ about fixed games would want to sell tips. Why not bet on them yourself? Its a good question from a novice but experienced winning punters, know that getting limited is part of the game if you win. So if you knew about fixed games, you would only be able to put so many bets on before all your accounts would be closed.

Selling fixed tips could be a legitimate way to cash in on this inside knowledge. I highly suspect they are all scams but there is a small chance they are telling the truth when they talk about fixed games.

Pre-match or in Running

A lot of fixes happen in running. If you try to fix a game before and bet pre, it gives a lot of time for people to cotton on to the fix and bookmakers will change the price or remove the market completely. More often than not, a fix is in running. A very short time period and the information, even if leaked, won’t change much as most people won’t be able to bet in the small window of opportunity.

There are some games that do look suspicious pre-market though. These are ones where the odds have dropped significantly for no apparent reason. It could well be that the odds weren’t right in the first place so its a natural correction or that some important team news has come out. They are more likely but a fix cannot be ruled out.

Types of markets for fixed games

The most obvious markets for fixes are the win/draw/lose market. Towards the end of the season, you see the odds on draws come in a lot on games where a draw is beneficial to both sides. This isn’t a fix to win money but just a beneficial result. Other popular markets for fixing are correct score, half time/ full time reversed, eg team A winning half time and team B winning full time and the goal markets. You see some fixes with really high scorelines.

No point in fixing a game for one that finishes 2-0 when you can do one that finishes 4-2 and win on not on the result but the over 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 and 5.5 goal lines.

How to spot fixed games.

Spotting fixed games can be difficult. There are some tell tale signs if you observe the odds. The most obvious one is if the goal line does not move as expected. You can see games that are 0-0 at half time and the odds for over 2.5 goals is the exact same as it was at kick off.

If you have access to Asian bookmakers, you can compare the odds from the Asian bookie to the soft books. Asian books will move their odds really quickly with the weight of money whereas soft books are a bit slower. If a home win is 1.25 in Asia and 1.8 at your bookie, its a good indication that there is something up with the game.

Can I win from it?

If you can spot these fixes, its possible to win but only short term. Bookies can and do void bets. Asian bookies do this often enough that you have to be weary of betting on them as its essentially a ‘free play’ for them. If it wins, they just void it, if it loses, they keep your money.

Your soft books will just limit or close your account but they generally pay out. If someone is involved in match fixing, its more likely they want to buy your ‘soft book’ account off you rather than selling you a tip for £50 or whatever.

Video on Match fixing