An introduction to scorecasts.

A scorecast is a football bet where you attempt to predict the first goal scorer and the correct score. For example in a match involving Manchester United in the Premiership, you could have Giggs to score first and correct score of 3-1.

Scorecasts are priced up separately. The novice bettor might think that if Giggs is 9/1 to score first goal and 3-1 correct score is 15/1 then the odds would be somewhere in the region of 135/1. This seems intuitive but is wrong. The true price on Giggs and 3-1 would be about 70/1. Still a big price but not as good as the double on both bets.

First goal scorer and correct score are dependent markets. With Giggs scoring first, it eliminates the possibility of the other team winning 1-0. An easier way to think about dependent market is to think of correct scores and win-draw-win market. Would a bookmaker ever take a double on 3-1 and Man U winning? No, 3-1 automatically means that Man U have won so no bookmaker would take that bet.

Scorecasts are best off thought of as fun lottery bets. Bookies love them because the theoretical payout is low. They also win on all 0-0 games and games where unexpected goal scorers score first. They will take a hit every so often when a popular scorecast comes in but in the long run its a very profitable market.

The good thing about bookies loving the market so much is that they offer inducements to play them. The most high profile one is Paddy Power’s money back specials. If, X scores the last goal in the game then Paddy Power will refund all losing scorecasts on the market. Bet365 and other bookmakers have also added these money back specials in recent time.

My tip/advice for scorecasts is to stick to low scoring games with obvious goal scorers. Its easier to get a scorecast right if the game ends 1-0 than if its 3-1.