West Ham United v Bournemouth
I am betting West Ham and over 2.5 goals here in this contest between the London club and the newly promoted Cherries. I fancy the Hammers and believe they are value because first they have had a 5 day break between this and their last match, which much feel like an eternity for these West Ham players who have been playing every 3 to 4 days for weeks now, so we should also see a rested West Ham team tonight. They face a Bournemouth side who i believe have massively overachieved this season, a quick look at xG will show you they are bottom of the division on expected goals and should have 4 points less on the xPTS (expected points) charts. I don’t believe a side with an xG of only 7.69 after 11 games should be sitting in 13th position with a game in hand, it is a bit of a anomaly for me, I think their stock has to drop soon and I believe that could be tonight away to the Hammers who have underachieved because a manic schedule and bad luck. West Ham were unlucky both last weekend away to Southampton and then in midweek away to Liverpool their xG shows they should have scored an extra 7 goals an earned an extra 6 points which suggests they’re a far better team than their league position states. I believe they are the bet of the weekend in the Premier league, I am also betting the over 2.5 goals, it is possible Bournemouth can score in this but betting a large favourite that is value and betting overs goals are normally correlated bets so makes sense to bet them. I believe the 5 day rest will mean we will see an improved West Ham side tonight against the worst team and probably luckiest in the league.
West Ham -1 min odds 1.95
Over 2.5 Goals scored min odds 2.01