FC Koln v Greuther Furth
I am betting the underdogs here +1.25 and under 3.25 goals, I think they are clear value and are underrated by the market, they were backed last weekend at home to Bayern Munich and if you look at the expected goals table they are a better team than the actual numbers suggest they are, they should have scored 3 goals more than they have, conceded 4 goals fewer than they have and have an extra 5 points they currently have obtained. Koln have certainly improved this season but they are probably little overrated certainly there is no underrating of the billy goats like their opponents and I feel Greuther Furth are a clear bet tonight. When a big underdog is value then then the under goals is usually also value as the market overestimates the chances of the favourite meaning the teams have less between them and should result in a tighter match meaning fewer goals in the game. Both these sides have seen 4 of their 6 matches have 3 goals or under too and Furth should have conceded 4 fewer goals than they have according to the expected goals charts and that would point to value in my book. I think both bets are value and should be backed.
Greuther Furth +1.25 min odds 1.87
Under 3.25 Goals scored min odds 1.84
