Chelsea vs Manchester City
I am betting Chelsea here, I think they’re in a better position than City currently and I can’t help but think back to the way Chelsea beat City at a canter in the Champions league final in June. Manchester City missed out signing a striker during the transfer window and I do have to say I think it may be coming back to bite them a little, they only drew last week at home to Southampton and pep sounds a little frustrated of late. I am betting Chelsea draw no bet here as I believe they are the value to get the win.
Chelsea 0 min odds 1.94
Leicester City vs Burnley
I can’t help not betting Burnley here +1, they take on a misfiring Leicester side a Leicester who has the 3rd lowest xG (Expected goals for) number this season in the premier league and the 4th highest xGA (Expected goals against) with a net number of near -5 goals on the expected charts. Burnley for me have been really unlucky and have done nothing wrong so far this season and this is also illustrated in the Expected goals numbers where Burnley have the 6th highest and according to the Expected points number Burnley should have recorded an extra 5 points than they currently have. Team news is fine and I think a line of +1 is clearly asking for Burnley to be backed when you analyse the stats and Expected numbers of both teams.
Burnley +1 min odds 1.82
Man United vs Aston Villa
I am betting the under 3 goals here, Villa have shown in every game this season bar Watford that they are not a bad side and can trouble any opponent, they have only conceded 5 goals against on the expected goals against charts and I think they can keep United quiet today. I was not impressed with United last weekend when they travelled to West Ham and with Villa probably siting in, United may find Villa a difficult side to break down, it is only 2 weekends ago that Villa played much better than the final result against Chelsea a repeat of that performance should give the under 3 goals a right chance of landing.
Under 3 goals scored min odds 1.75
Watford vs Newcastle Utd
I am betting Over 2.5 goals, I think there is a lot of value in this number, Newcastle play so open, they are conceding over 2 expected goals against on average this season and have conceded at least 2 goals in every game this season bar the last one v Leed and that was a fluke how they did not concede more in that match and with Watford’s matches averaging not far off 3 goals a game this season, I think it is easy to see there is value in the over 2.5 goals at near even money.
Over 2.5 goals scored min odds 1.94
Brentford vs Liverpool
I am betting Brentford here +1 and under 2.75 goals to be scored too, I think Brentford can keep it tight against the Merseyside reds both these sides are very good defensive teams, Brentford and Liverpool have conceded the 2nd and 3rd fewest expected goals against in the premier league this season and in real terms have only conceded 3 goals between them in their 10 game played combined. I think it is glaringly obvious that on these numbers, Brentford as a underdog has a very solid chance and should be supported along with the under 2.75 goals.
Brentford +1 min odds 2.02
Under 2.75 goals scored min odds 1.84