Liverpool vs Real Madrid
I am betting Liverpool and over 2.75 Goals to be scored in tonight’s Champion’s League final in Paris, I believe Madrid is lucky to be in the final and Liverpool are comfortably a better team than Los Blancos. For me Madrid should never have got past the round of 16 to reach the quarter-final. They did so after beating Paris Saint Germain in a dramatic comeback at home in the 2nd leg. Then they should never have got past Chelsea to reach the semi-finals in a tie they were 2nd best in and then in the semi-final itself against Manchester City, who must have thought they had the game won and were in the final, they scored 2 goals in injury time in the 2nd leg in Madrid before going on to win the game in extra time 3-1 against a shell shocked Man City team.
You can look at this run in two ways, one being that Madrid have beaten PSG, Chelsea and Manchester City, all excellent sides, to reach the final or the way I am looking at it is that they have been very fortunate to get this far and now meet a Liverpool team who is certainly better than PSG and Chelsea, both of whom for me should have beaten Madrid in the earlier rounds. To justify my opinion Madrid were lucky in reaching the final, I would point towards the expected goals (xG), In the round of 16 PSG were 1.5 higher on xG over the 2 legs than Madrid, in the Quarterfinal, Chelsea were 0.3 higher than Madrid over the 2 legs on xG and against Man City and excluding the penalty in extra time, City were 0.95 higher on the xG than Madrid and all this paints a picture for me that Madrid have been very fortunate to get by all these teams to face Liverpool in the final tonight.
I think their luck will run out here and betting Liverpool to get the win, I am also betting over 2.75 goals both these sides are better going forward than defending and this should lead to goals and an open game and it makes sense that when making a favourite value we should support the goals and that is what I am doing so here.
Liverpool -0.5 min odds 2.00
Over 2.75 Goals scored min odds 1.95