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Football Betting Tips
by Ben, last updated 2010-02-12 02:41:48FA Cup 5th Round Tips 13th -14th February 2010
13th February 2010
Chelsea (1.18) Draw (7.5) Cardiff (17)
Chelsea may have lost to Everton midweek but I can see no upset here. Cardiff are like most of the Championship, can be good but can also be terrible. 1.18 is probably a fair price. I can see much more value in the 1.91 at Skybet and bluesquare for Chelsea to win to nil. The odds imply about a 50% chance that Chelsea will win to nil but I think it’s better than that. No John Terry but I think the Chelsea defence can keep out Cardiff.
Southampton (2.88) Draw (3.3) Portsmouth (2.63)
Not so long ago these sides were playing each other in the Premiership. Nowadays 2 divisions separate the two. Southampton sit mid-table despite having a 10 point penalty. Portsmouth have big problems off the pitch with the tax man and on the pitch being 8 points off safety. I don't think Portsmouth will lose this game. A replay would do them good financially but I think they should win this. They are 2.63 at
Derby (3.25) Draw (3.4) Birmingham (2.5)
Derby have been on a little mini-run, beating Forest and Newcastle and were unlucky not to have beaten Sheffield United too. Birmingham's good run had to come to an end sometime. Its was surprising they lost 2-0 at West Ham. I can see them going for this game though. They are safe in the Premier League and a good cup run will be good for them. You can get 2.5 for Birmingham at VC Bet.
Reading (2.8) Draw (3.4) West Brom (2.62)
Reading sit in the relegation zone despite winning their last 3 games. With the league so tight at the bottom, they are unlikely to go down this season. Having knocked out Liverpool and Burnley, it looks like they are up for a good cup run. West Brom sit top of the league on goal difference but have played a game more than Newcastle. I can see getting automatic promotion as being the number 1 priority for West Brom and the FA Cup being a distraction. You can get 2.8 for Reading at William Hill.
Manchester City (1.5) Draw (4.2) Stoke (8.5)
Just when you think that Man City can make a good push for a Champions League spot, they go and lose to Hull City of all people. They partially redeemed themselves by beating Bolton 2-0 but everyone seems to beat Bolton nowadays. Fortunately for City, Stoke don't travel very well. Their record reads 1-6-5. They knocked out a weakened Arsenal team last time. I think City will be at full strength so they won't get an easy time. The 1.5 on the City win seems fair enough to me.
14th February 2010
Bolton (3.75) Draw (3.4) Tottenham (2.2)
Bolton's fortunes haven't changed much since Owen Coyle's arrival. A record of 1-1-4. The 4 defeats were to Arsenal (twice), Man City and Liverpool though. Last round, they beat Sheffield United 2-0. Spurs stumbled against Wolves midweek. It seems like they have lost their away scoring boots. In the league they have only scored 1 in the last 4 away games. They managed to beat Leeds 3-1 in the replay but the game was a lot tighter than the scoreline suggests. I am going for a draw here. I can't really trust Spurs away from home at 2.2. The draw is 3.4 at bet365.
Fulham (1.53) Draw (4.3) Notts Co (8)
Fulham have come out of their run of 5 straight defeats with a 2 wins and a draw. They were quite fortunate in the last round to beat Accrington. It was all square until Accrington has a man sent off. Fulham went on to win 3-1. Hodgson says he's taking the FA Cup seriously and has indicated he will sacrifice Europa Leagues games rather than the FA Cup. Notts County have been doing reasonably well under a caretaker manager. I can't see a league 2 team troubling Fulham at all. Its 1.53 at Boylesport
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Crystal Palace (5) Draw (3.6) Aston Villa (1.83)
If you have some spare money you could actually buy Crystal Palace. There was an advert in the FT advertising the club for sale. On the pitch they are on a decent run with a record that reads, 4-2-2. They are still very close to the drop zone though. Villa have gone off the boil a little. They really should have capitalised better against Manchester United. United played a lot of the game with 10 men but still left Villa Park with a point. I think O'Neil will put out a strong team here. Last season, the decline in form happened after O'Neil played a weakened cup side. He'll not make that same mistake again. Villa are 1.83 at William Hill.
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