Picks
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Football Betting Tips
by Simon, last updated 2010-07-02 00:58:23World Cup Quarter Final Picks
2 July 2010
Netherlands (4.5) Draw (3.4) Brazil (1.95)
This game is probably the game of the quarter finals. The number 1 ranked team in the world vs the number 4. The Netherlands come in to this game on the back of a 2-1 win over Slovakia. It was a stoppage time penalty so easily could have been 2-0. In the 4 games this world cup the Dutch haven't let a goal in from open play. The goal conceded against Cameroon was also a penalty. I was expecting a little more flair from the Dutch but they seem happy to get the win playing an average game.
Brazil beat Chile 3-0 to get here. Chile looked like they were giving as good as they got After about 20 minutes though, they seem to run out of steam and Brazil's quality came through. Its actually the first game, I have seen from them where I was impressed. That Fabiano looks like nifty and the Brazilians have a world class keeper this time round.
From a betting point of view, I suppose the value is in backing the Netherlands. 4.5 is a big price for a team that is on a 23 match unbeaten run. However, I see the Brazilians a class above anyone the Netherlands have faced recently. If Brazil play like they did against Chile and not like they did in qualifying, I can see a Brazilian win here. Its 1.95 at VC Bet
Uruguay (2.1) Draw (3.25) Ghana (4.2)
Uruguay have played a decent tournament so far, they topped their group and didn't concede a single goal. They even went out and beat Mexico 1-0 in the game where a draw would have been the most convenient result. Last game, they beat South Korea 2-1. I wouldn't say that Uruguay were much the better side, they just had a couple of match winners in Suarez and Forlan
Ghana played a great game against the USA. A goal up in 5 minutes, they could have easily been leading more by half time. They dropped off second half allowing the USA back in to it with a penalty. Then in extra time, they scored early again and held on for the victory. I say held on, it was still a game of football, not like Ghana backs against the wall.
Betting wise I am unsure about this game. Ghana are effectively the home side and have stepped in up a gear. Suarez and Forlan are dangerous but surely Ghana side will keep close tabs on them. I can't be backing Uruguay at 2.1 though and maybe its asking too much for Ghana to win. The draw it is then, its 3.25 at Skybet.
3 July 2010
Argentina (2.38) Draw (3.25) Germany (3.4)
For England fans this is a game they wish both teams can lose. Its amazing that some people still haven't forgiven Maradona for the hand of God. Rivalry between England and Germany football probably is a lot deeper not to mention that England got spanked 4-1 last round by Germany.
Argentina was my bet for winning the tournament. Their strike force is probably the best in the tournament. There were some concerns about their defence but that seems to have held up well so far only conceding a single goal against the Mexicans. With Tevez, Messi and Higuain you can be sure they'll score goals.
Germany spanked England 4-1 but I can't help but think that was just an inept England performance. Some absolutely shocking defending by the England defence made it easy for the Germany side to score. I can't see Ozil bossing the midfield again like he did against England and Argentina's defence can't be as inept as England's to allow Klose a goal straight through the middle.
I'll be backing Argentina to win this games. 2.38 at William Hill is a decent price. It opened just over even money but has drifted up to 2.38. I do like over 2.5 goals in this game too. I can see both sides scoring so thats 2 goals already. Just 1 more and the overs bets a winner. It's 2.1 at Skybet for over 2.5 goals.
Paraguay (8.5) Draw (4.1) Spain (1.5)
Paraguay knocked out Japan on penalties, after a 0-0 draw. I'll say this, if it goes to penalties, back Uruguay all day long. They scored all 5 of theirs easily. I wasn't impressed at all with the game against the Japanese, a game of few chances and you could almost sense it after the first half it was going to penalties. Paraguay haven't impressed much at all, they may have topped their group but it was possibly the poorest group with none of the 3 teams being able to beat New Zealand part timers.
Spain squeezed past Portugal 1-0. I say squeezed past because it was close. For all their possession Spain had few shots on target and it looked early on like it was going to go to extra time and penalties. Well that was until Villa scored in the 63rd minute. Torres wasn't at his best at all. Spain looked more threatening after he was subbed. Lucky for them Portugal played a defensive game and never looked like scoring. I am expecting Spain to come alive at some point as they have on paper at least the strongest overall team in the world cup.
I am going to have to back Spain here. 1.5 is generally available. Paraguay are 8.5 for a reason. I think the best they can hope for is a 0-0 and go through on penalties but I am sure Villa and co will be able to pierce their defences.
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