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English Premiership Saturday 13th August.

by Ben , last updated 2005-07-23 20:51:27

There's not much going on football betting wise that I care to bet on until the first day of the Premiership.

There's some Scandinavian, Irish and Russian football as well as the Intertoto Cup but none of them interest me. Liverpool play TNS in the first round of the Champions League in a week or so. I've seen only one bookie price this up so far. Liverpool are 1.02 to win. Its not worth bothering signing up for the bookie www.betto.com for those odds.

The English lower leagues start a week earlier so I may have a bet on some of those. I think they are best left until 2-3 matches in to the season though. I'll have a look closer to match day for those.

The odds for the first day of the premiership are out now. I'll put up the current odds (03/07/2005) and update my picks as I get transfer news and pre-season match results. The prices are very competative at the moment. The book value of the highest priced book is a mere 104%.


 Long Term market

 top goal scorer

I placed a bet on Liverpool's Djibril Cisse to be top goal scorer. I managed to get 26.0 at Bet365 The price has dropped to 23.0 now but thats still good value. I had my bet each way so I still win even if he gets 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

He's surely going to be the regular striker for Liverpool (along with Morientes). Baros looks like he's leaving and Crouch will probably be used as a substitute striker rather than a starting striker.

He scored 26 goals in 38 league matches in the French First Division in 2003/04. If it wasn't for that tragic day in Blackburn I am sure he'd have given Henry a run for his money last year.


Here's another take on the top goal scorer market from Nigel Ridgway of Bet365.

DROGBA FOR FLYING START
***********************
Weíre now betting on who will be the top scorer in the Premiership next season. Topping the list is last yearís top scorer Thierry Henry at 9/4, followed by Ruud van Nistlerooy at 9/2, although neither price is much to get excited about. Further down the list we come to Didier Drogba at 12/1, and that looks more of a value price. Itís not uncommon for foreign imports to struggle in their first season, only to come alive in their second season once acclimatized to the pace of the English game. Plus, with Chelsea beginning their campaign away at Wigan, home to Arsenal and West Brom, followed by Spurs away, there should be plenty of early goalscoring opportunities, by which time youíll be in a position to cover your bet.

Top Premiership Goalscorer 2005/6: Didier Drogba @ 12/1


I'm not going to bother with that bet though. I do not rate Drogba at all. Cisse all the way for me.


 Wigan vs Chelsea

 Wigan (9.1) Draw (4.3) Chelsea (1.53)

I see this match as a foregone conclusion. Wigan's Ellington and Roberts may have terrorised the Championship defences last season but this is the Premiership.

Chelsea have been signed Shaun Wright Philips and have Crespo back from AC Milan. Thats going to strenthen the already mightly Chelsea. They looked fairly average against Benfica the other night but I think thats just Chelsea's style of play. They just always manage to win.

The values dropped out of this market (if there was ever any, 1.53 for an away win??). The best odds you can get now is 1.44 which is available at a number of bookies. Expect this price to drop even further.


 West Ham vs Blackburn

 West Ham (2.5) Draw (3.25) Blackburn (3.2)




 Sunderland vs Charlton

 Sunderland (2.5) Draw (3.25) Charlton (3.1)




 Portsmouth vs Tottenham

 Portsmouth (2.75) Draw (3.3) Tottenham (2.85)




 Middlesbrough vs Liverpool

 Middlesbrough (2.9) Draw (3.25) Liverpool (2.6)

I am liking the look of Liverpool for this one. I have been impressed by the Liverpool's pre-seasons matches. They demolished a weakened Bayer Leverkusen 3-0. I don't think the keeper had to make a save that match. They have just beat Olympiacos 4-3. They were cruising 4-1 up at one point but 2 late sloppy goals made the scoreline look respectable.

I've not heard much about Middlesbrough apart from they sold Zenden (one of their best players) to Liverpool.

At a price of 2.6 at totalbet.com with a Free £25 Bet! this seems like a bargain bet to me.


 Man City vs West Brom

 Man City (1.8) Draw (3.6) West Brom (5.2)




 Fulham vs Birmingham

 Fulham (2.4) Draw (3.3) Birmingham (3.25)




 Everton vs Man Utd

 Everton (4.3) Draw (3.5) Man Utd (2.04)

I can see there being some early value in betting on Manchester United beating Everton.

It still baffles me how Everton managed to come 4th last season. They didn't have any players that had star status. All those 1-0 wins added up and some how they managed to hang on. It looks like they are losing their captain, Alan Stubbs and midfielder, Mikel Arteta. A few new signings (Kroldrup and maybe Bellamy) will strengthen the squd but I don't think its going to be a good season for the Toffess.

Manchester United, started and finished badly in the league last season. With all the talent up front I can't see how they failed to score in so many matches. They've signed Dutch keeper Van der Saar and Korean midfielder, Park. They should keep Rooney, Ferdinand and Ronaldo who I think were the best players last season. Van Nistelrooy, Saha and Smith look like leaving but that's no great loss really.

Man U lost this fixture last season in a 1-0 shock result. I can't see that happening again this season. Pinnacle Sports are offering 2.01.



 Aston Villa vs Bolton

 Aston Villa (2.4) Draw (3.3) Bolton (3.3)




 Arsenal vs Newcastle

 Arsenal (1.5) Draw (4.3) Newcastle (8.3)

Arsenal should walk all over Newcastle. Newcastle are looking to rebuild after a terrible season. All the back stage drama has distracted the once mighty Toon Army. To be honest I can't see many top players wanting to sign for them because of all the trouble with Souness. Arsenal are only 1.5 though, so Iíll leave the 3 way market alone.

I'll probably leave this one totally. Newcastle's season has already started so they will be better prepared for this match. Arsenal have lost their captian and may struggle to adjust. I think its better to wait to see what Arsenal play like before betting on them at 1.5.




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