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Midweek football

by Ben, last updated 2005-09-11 00:55:49

The picks for midweek are

Lyon to beat Real Madrid 1X2
Leeds to beat Sheffield Wednesday 1X2
Porto +0.25 Asian Handicap against Rangers.

Analysis below. You can see staking details in this excel sheet

I've also had a treble with Chelsea, AC Milan and Inter Milan. Looking at their oppenents I can't see any of the slipping up. I got 2.31 at Skybet for this. Odds have dropped so its best to check on oddschecker which bookie gives the best for this now. I know that Pinnacle were offering less than evens.


  Rangers vs FC Porto

  Rangers (2.5) Draw (3.25) FC Porto (3.2)

I decided to have Porto on the Asian Handicap becasue of how bad their season has started. I read this interesting piece in the telegraph about rangers

Porto must be rubbing their hands with glee. Much has been made of the Portugese side being a mere shadow of the team which savoured UEFA Cup success under Jose Mourinho two years ago. However, on this evidence, any half decent side with their hands tied behind their backs would prove too much for Rangers, and if the Scottish champions don't polish up their act for tomorrow night's Champions League tie, then Porto will rip them apart. Full article here

If they can't beat other SPL teams what chance have they got against the team thats top of the Portugese League.

Asian Odds have dropped but you can still get 3.2 for Porto at betdirect and 3.25 for the draw at premierbet and make your own +0.25 Handicap by following the by sticking 58% on the away win and 42% on the draw. This gives odds of about 1.8 which is better than you'll get betting on the Asian Handicap. Porto straight 1X2 at 3.2 is worth while but I get put off by long odds (I prefer even money bets).




 Sheff Wednesday vs Leeds

 Sheff Wed (2.8) Draw (3.25) Leeds (2.4)

Sheffield Wednesday are struggling this season. They've been hit by an injury crisis and have resigned themselves to fighting a battle to stay up this season. They sit second from the bottom of the table. Having only scored 2 in 6 league outings they are really missing McLean. I watched them play against QPR and they were absolutely awful.

Leeds maybe were a little fortunate to get a 3-3 draw at the weekend. It was a match in which they dominated but found themselves 3-2 down after 90 minutes and needed a injury time goal get the point. Previously they had a 3 win streak taking points from Norwich, Oldham and Wolves.

I can't see Wednesday scoring at all and with Leeds striker on Dave Healy on form, this could be embarrassing for the home side. I got 2.6 on the 1X2 market but that price has disappeared. I actually think any price above evens is good. For a safer bet, bet365 and bluesquare are both giving Leeds draw no bet for 1.8. I also think the 5.0 bet365 are offering on Leeds -1 (1X2 Handicap) is good too.


 Lyon vs Real Madrid

 Lyon (2.75) Draw (3.2) Real Madrid (2.5)

I am going for Lyon in this match. I watched the second half of the match between Real Madrid and Celta Viga. Madrid didn't look as good playing as they do on paper. The last goal shouldn't have counted as it didn't go over line so the 3-2 defeat was a little harsh. I saw Madrid last weekend too and they didn't look convincing at Cadiz (so much so I hedged my bet in running). They were very fortunate to get the late goal that won them the match.

Madrid didn't travel very well in last years competition. They only won the one game on the road. This was against Roma who had already been knocked out and in an empty stadium. Leverkusen beat them 3-0, Dynamo Kiev held them to a 2-2 draw and Juventus beat the 2-0 after extra time.

Lyon are flying high in the French League. They have won 5 out of 6 and the other one they drew. They did well in the champions league last year. They were knocked out by PSV on penalties in the quarter finals. Previously they knocked out Werder Breman 10-2 on aggregate and topped their group. They did have Essien back then but they seem to be doing well without him.

I've snapped up the 2.75 that bet365 are offering on the 1X2 market. I don't know why they have made Madrid the favourites for this one. I guess they haven't had chance to factor in their loss today. On current form, Lyon should win easily.




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