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Weekend Football

by Ben, last updated 2005-09-20 22:08:16

This weeks tips are:

Bolton to beat Pompy at 1.83 at William Hill

Wigan +0.5 Asian Handicap against Everton at 2.00 at CanBet.com

Man U vs Blackburn under 2.5 goals at 2.05 at CanBet.com

Charlton +0 Asian Handicap to beat West Brom at 1.83 at bet365

*Late pick. Analysis below. Sunderland +1 Asian Handicap 1.83 at Premierbet.

No analysis this week. They should all be fairly obvious apart from the unders one on Man U.

I had a look at the stats and all Man U's league games have been under this year. Their world class strike force isn't delivering the goals. They've only scored 6 all season and (at least) 3 of them were gifts from defensive errors. Looks like a 0-0 or 1-0 this one. Maybe Blackburn +1.5 on the Asian Handicap would be better but the unders bet covers the 2-0 scoreline too so I've gone for that.

Ryans bonus pick.
Lecicester to beat QPR. QPR have injury problems whereas Leceister have players returning. You can get evens for this at the moment at Paddypower




 Middlesbrough vs Sunderland

 Middlesbrough (1.57) Draw (3.75) Sunderland (7.1)

This was a match I wasn't going to touch but as its the only premiership match this Sunday, I thought I'd take a look at it. I think that Sunderland +1 on the Asian Handicap is a good bet.

Sunderland has been struggling in the Premiership. Six games in to the season and they have managed 5 losses and a draw. Last weeks draw was little unlucky as West Brom scored deep in to injury time. Looking at their losses this season they haven't had any thrashings. Charlton beat them 3-1 on the opening day, Liverpool, 1-0, Man City 2-1, Wigan 1-0 and Chelsea 2-0. Given that Chelsea and Charlton are 1st and 2nd in the league, the 2 goal defeats are understandable. The other defeats were only by a single goal.

Middlesbrough have been inconsistent this season. 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. They drew 1-1 last game against Wigan. I don't think that type of form warrants a -1 Asian Handicap, even if they are at home and facing a team that hasn't won all season. There's a local derby factor which increases the chances of the draw.

Sunderland +1 Asian is 1.83 at Premierbet. Sunderland could get a point here and I think even if they do lose its unlikely to be more than by the single goal. See below for Gerry's view on this match. He thinks this has got 0-0 bore written all over it.



 Gerry's Picks

 By Gerry McDonnell

A full archive can be found at www.holteenders.co.uk

The Good Book

The Premiership is universally touted as the greatest league in the World, yet the football played this season is comparable to sex between old people; exciting for the participants, but the neutral has no real interest.

Out of 54 matches played, we’ve already seen 8 goalless matches. There’s a couple of ‘Paint dryers’ on the coupon this weekend, back ‘No Goalscorer’ in the Everton v Wigan and Middlesbrough v Sunderland matches, you’ll be getting 8/1 about a 5/1 shot. The football will be dull, but making a tidy profit, now that’s entertainment.

It’s been a mixed week for Wayne Rooney, he won young player of the year, but then UEFA hit him with a two match ban for giving a referee the clap; shares in McDonalds have rocketed as a result. Expect Rooney to take his anger out on Blackburn, Man U are good things at 1/4.

Peter ‘Higher than Kate Moss’ Crouch is set for another difficult weekend. The Liverpool hitman was on the wrong end of an earful from Rio Ferdinand last week, and the ex Villan can expect another battle when he travels to Birmingham.

Liverpool are yet to win on the road, but as Birmingham have lost every match at home, the omens point to a hard fought away win. Get on the ‘Pool at Evens to win the match thanks to a ‘Crouch potato’. He’ll chip in with the opener.

Manchester City hit the woodwork 5 times last week in a soul destroying 1-0 defeat to Bolton. Hitting the bar, then a post is nothing new; Jermaine Pennant came up with the idea last season. Man City will have more bad luck this weekend; Get on Newcastle to continue their winning ways at 11/10.

With goals hard to come by, finding a player to be booked may be somewhat easier; the following specials are available at Super Soccer.

“Book him, Danno” – Danny Mills to be booked 7/4
“Cruel, tubby kind” – Wayne Rooney to be booked 7/4
“Johnny be good” – John Terry to be booked 9/4
“All shook Up” – Matthew Upson to be booked 5/2
“Fresh Ginger” – Scholes to be booked 11/4
“Go for a Song” – Boumsong to be booked 3/1
“De Gaulle of him” – Robert Pires to be booked 10/3
“Cross with Silva” – Gilberto Silva to be booked 10/3
“Put the card before the horse” – Van Nistelrooy to be booked 10/3
“P.C. gone mad” – Peter Crouch to be booked 7/2
“Let’s get Freddie to Rumble” – Ljungberg to be booked 7/2

Quote of the week:

“That fifth goal was not deserved.”
John Gorman, after Villa destroyed Wycombe 8-3.

Stat, you’re a liberty:

Aston Villa have scored five goals this season, and all have been scored before the 11th minute.

Acc of the week:

Liverpool
Newcastle
Charlton
Arsenal
Bolton

The five-fold will pay over 28/1.

Weekend Betting:

Birmingham v Liverpool Saturday 24th September 12.45 Live on PPV

Birmingham 5/2
Draw 2/1
Liverpool Evs

Get on: Liverpool

The European Champions are struggling to score goals, but they face a Birmingham side who are yet to earn a point at home. Away win. Match Special:
Liverpool to win 1-0 6/1

Chelsea v Aston Villa Saturday 24th September 15.00

Chelsea 2/9
Draw 4/1
Aston Villa 9/1

Get on: Chelsea

Chelsea have won this fixture 1-0 for the last two seasons. Judging on recent form, it’ll either be 1-0 again, or 8-3 to the Villa. I’ll pick the former. Match Special:
Chelsea to win 1-0 7/1

Everton v Wigan Saturday 24th September 15.00

Everton 8/11
Draw 9/4
Wigan 10/3

Get on: Draw

Everton are the only team in the League yet to score in front of their own fans, my cash will be on that stat continuing. Match Special:
No goalscorer in the match 8/1

Man Utd v Blackburn Saturday 24th September 15.00

Man Utd 1/4
Draw 7/1
Blackburn 10/1

Get on: Man Utd

Van Nistelrooy has a cracking record of scoring the first goal in this fixture; there’ll be no long face as he nets the opener in a convincing United victory. Match Special:
Van Nistelrooy to score the first goal 11/4

Newcastle v Man City Saturday 24th September 15.00

Newcastle 11/10
Draw 9/4
Man City 2/1

Get on: Newcastle

The Geordies have hit goal scoring form; Shearer has a great recent record against Man City, as has Michael Owen. Home win.
Match Special:
Shearer and Owen both to score 6/1

West Brom v Charlton Saturday 24th September 15.00

West Brom 13/8
Draw 11/5
Charlton 11/8

Get on: Charlton

Charlton have won 1-0 at the Hawthorns on their last three visits, another three points awaits.
Match Special:
Charlton to win 1-0 6/1

West Ham v Arsenal Saturday 24th September 15.00

West Ham 10/3
Draw 9/4
Arsenal 8/11

Get on: Arsenal

A tough game to call, the Hammers top the League in average goals scored per game, but Arsenal are showing glimpses of their previous greatness. The Gunners have came from behind to snatch a draw on their last two trips to Upton Park, they can go one better today. Match Special:
Arsenal to win from behind 8/1

Bolton v Portsmouth Saturday 24th September 17.15 Live on PPV

Bolton 8/11
Draw 9/4
Portsmouth 10/3

Get on: Bolton

Portsmouth have lost to Bolton in five of their last six meetings. Discontent is growing amongst the Pompey faithful, another defeat lies ahead.
Match Special:
Bolton to keep a clean sheet 11/10

Middlesbrough v Sunderland Sunday 25th September 16.00 Live on Sky

Middlesbrough 8/13
Draw 12/5
Sunderland 4/1

Get on: Draw

Boro are inconsistent, Sunderland are improving; another dull nil-nil.
Match Special:
No goalscorer in the match 8/1

Tottenham v Fulham Monday 26th September 20.00 Live on Sky

Tottenham 8/15
Draw 12/5
Fulham 5/1

Get on: Fulham

If Grimsby knock you out of the Cup, it’s safe to say you’re not playing well. Fulham have won four of the last six meetings between the two; back Fulham to be singing in the Lane. Match Special:
Fulham to win 1-0 11/1


 Correct Score Lucky 15

 lottery type bet

With the number of goals in the Premiership down this year it makes correct scores easier to pick. Obviously with less goals the less variation there can be in the scoreline. I'm going to have a try picking 1-0 winners this week.

I've gone for a correct score lucky 15. (A lucky 15 is combination of all the bets you can make from 4 selections, so its 4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles and 1 4-fold). bet365 offer trable odds for just one winner. I've done the maths and I just need one winner to make a profit.

The 4 matches I've chosen are:

1 24/09/2005 Birmingham v Liverpool
(Correct Score) Liverpool 1-0 @ 7.00
2 24/09/2005 Man Utd v Blackburn
(Correct Score) Man Utd 1-0 @ 7.00
3 24/09/2005 Newcastle v Man City
(Correct Score) Newcastle 1-0 @ 7.00
4 24/09/2005 Bolton v Portsmouth
(Correct Score) Bolton 1-0 @ 6.50

If it all comes in then it pays £3824.00 (from £1 stakes). Realistically though I expect to get 1 or 2 right and make a nice profit with the chance of hitting the jackpot. Ladbrokes do double odds for one correct result but this won't make you a profit from just 1 result. bet365 is the only firm as far as I know that pays treble for just one winner on a lucky 15.



 Nigel's Picks

 from Bet365

CHELSEA TO LEAVE IT LATE AGAIN AT 11/8
Last week we flagged up the fact that Chelsea have been winning their games late on, after grinding down their opposition in the second half. This resulted in a nice 3/1 pay-out on the Draw / Chelsea double result in their match against Charlton, and similar betting tactics can pay off again this week in their match against Aston Villa.

Villa (12/1) are unlikely to upset Chelsea, but they’ve done enough in their previous two away matches this season to suggest that they can keep the score line respectable. And, since Chelsea have yet to concede in the Premiership (and Villa have failed to score in their last three visits to the Bridge), we can also be confident about backing them to win to nil at 11/8 (another winning bet last week at 6/4). The game is not live on TV but, as we bet all Premiership matches ‘In-Play’, we’re also giving you the option to get stuck into the Blues before the start of the second half, when they’re likely to be a better price than the current 2/9.


WHO WILL SCORE FIRST AGAINST CHELSEA?
With six games, eighteen points, and a big fat zero in the goals against column, the Premiership title race already looks over (currently 2/7 Chelsea). And, with the Chelsea clean sheet run likely to go on for at least another week, we’re betting on which side will score first against them in the Premiership this season. Saturday’s potential ‘lambs to the slaughter’, Aston Villa, are 6/4 to breach the watertight defence first, with a goal-shy Liverpool (October 2nd) next best at 7/4. With matches against Bolton (13/2), Everton (9/1), and Blackburn (28/1) also on the horizon, it’s difficult to find a winner in this ‘market’. In fact, we might have to wait until Man United (16/1) on November 6th to get paid out!


START YOUR ACCA AT THE BRIDGE
Chelsea may be on the skinny side this weekend, but they can still get our Premiership accas off to a great start. Betting purists will say that you shouldn’t be placing multiple bets, but this is one way of getting rich cheaply, and there’s nothing wrong with a speculative wager on a Saturday afternoon – plus you’re assured of getting some extra value with our Premiership Accumulator Bonus! This weekend, Chelsea are home bankers, but the remaining selections are all fancied to win on their travels. Charlton
(6/4) have been phenomenal on the road this season (three out of three), and they look set for another nice away day against the Baggies. Wigan have adjusted to life in the top flight rather well, and are a touch of value at 3/1 to beat a struggling Everton, while Liverpool (11/10) can get the better of Birmingham in Saturdays’ live lunchtime encounter (ko 12.45). A £25 acca on all four selections this weekend pays out £673.75 - that includes a bet365 bonus of 5% (up to 60% on offer every weekend in the Premiership).

Weekend Premiership Picks:

Draw / Chelsea @ 7/2; Chelsea to win to nil @ 11/8
Charlton to beat West Brom @ 6/4
Wigan to beat Everton @ 3/1
Liverpool to beat Birmingham @ 11/10
4-fold on Chelsea (2/9), Charlton (6/4), Wigan (3/1) and Liverpool
(11/10)

Bet with bet365




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