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Midweek football

by Ben, last updated 2005-09-25 20:50:34

Another tough week of Champions league. All the obvious picks will have high handicaps. Therefore I am going to go for a solid treble. I can't see Bayern Munich, Juventus or Inter Milan slipping up so I've had them in a treble at Ladbrokes. This pays 1.89. Its a lot easier than analysing each match and deciding whether a the team will beat the handicap.

I am staying away from Man U, Real Madrid and Barcalona. They all should win but shakey domestic league starts make me not want to include them in my accumulator. One of the strong favourites has got to slip up.

I have gone for Chelsea to beat Liverpool. Analysis below. I've also gone for Ajax to beat Arsenal on the Asian Handicap. Ajax were unlucky to lose to Arsenal pre season. Arsenal have many injury problems for this match. They aren't doing too well in the league so far. They never seem to perform for Champions League. All the signs point to a Ajax win or draw.

I've just looked at the Premiership odds for this weekend. Villa to beat Middlesbrough, Chelsea to beat Liverpool and Charlton to beat Tottenham all look good. I've only committed to the Charlton draw no bet at 1.8 at bet365 so far. Seems totally crazy to offer a zero handicap to a team that has won all but one of their matches, against an over rated team that is really struggling to score this season. I'm certainly on Chelsea if Liverpool somehow manage to beat them in the Champions League.

 Liverpool vs Chelsea

 Liverpool (3.6) Draw (3.2) Chelsea (2.38)

If this was a league match, I'd think that the bookies were mad offering odds against for Chelsea. However, this is Champions League and Liverpool are a different team. Looking at the odds, the bookies have priced this up, to make me think, that they think, its going to be draw. (There are lots of firms offering less than 3.00 for the draw). I am still going for the Chelsea win.

Liverpool are looking pretty average in the league. They've only scored 3 all season and 2 of them were on Saturday against Birmingham. I don't rate Peter Crouch at all so hopefully he will be starting this match. I suppose last year it was the same story. A mediocre league performance and excellent Champions League form. I can't help but think that Liverpool played above their level of skill (in much the same way Everton did).

Chelsea are on fire. They have steamrolled passed all their opponents in the league. They were pretty much unstoppable last season but with this years new signings they look indestructible. Villa are the only team to have scored against them this year, after 7 matches. I expect they'll be wanting revenge for last years defeat.

I am going for Chelsea -0.25 at evens. I've done this by putting on Chelsea at 2.38 at Stan James and on the draw at 3.2 Totalbet. If you put 84% of your stake on the win and 16% on the draw then you will get the equivalent Asian Handicap. I don't think Liverpool will score against Chelsea so I guess the worst case is 0-0.





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