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Weekend football

by Ben, last updated 2005-09-28 23:28:23

Saturdays picks are:

Charlton draw no bet at 1.8 at Blue Square

Newcastle draw not bet at bet365 odds were 1.8 but now 1.73 (low stakes).

Sundays picks are:

Villa -0.25 at Canbet.com priced at 1.901.

Liverpool/ Chelsea correct scores Liverpool 1-0 @ 8/1, Draw 1-1 @ 11/2
at Littlewodds Betdirect. Money back for 0-0.

Reasoning below, plus picks from Gerry McDonnell and Nigel Ridgeway.

 Aston Villa vs Middlesbrough

 Aston Villa (2.25) Draw (3.25) Middlesbrough (3.5)

This is the only match I am going for today. I don't really like any of the other matches. There are some really tricky calls.

Middlesbrough are inconsistent so far this season. Last week, they were unlucky to lose to Sunderland. I was watching this in the pub and every time I looked up it was Middlesbrough attacking. The stats for the shots on target was 11-2 in favour of Middlesbrough. There is one interesting stat I read today from SportingLife "Boro have not won one of the eight Barclays Premiership games they have played in the immediate aftermath of a Thursday night UEFA Cup outing during the past two seasons." Doesn't look good for Middlesbrough.

Villa were spanked a couple of weeks ago 4-0 by West Ham. They have improved since then though. They should have beat Tottenham and are the first team to score against Chelsea this year. They do have a few injury problems but striker Milan Baros is back.

I am going for Villa on the Asian Handicap which is -0.25. The odds are 1.901 (strange accuracy on the site) at Canbet Villa haven't lost at home this season yet and I don't see Middlesbrough changing that.


 Liverpool vs Chelsea

 Liverpool (3.6) Draw (3.2) Chelsea (2.33)

This is a really tough one to call. Everytime I think about it, I come out with a different result.

I‘ve decided to go with Nigels view.

"It's a busy week at Anfield, with Chelsea visiting in the week and again in the Premiership on Sunday. Both games are likely to be tense affairs, however, based on previous encounters, goals are likely to be at a premium. The pair met five times last season, and every game was close ending either in a draw or with a single goal deciding the outcome. Only the League Cup Final produced more than one goal, so the main bet has to be ‘under' 2.5 goals at 4/7. Given the current points standings between the two teams, Liverpool might have the greater need to win the game and, with Chelsea finally conceding last weekend, the Reds are fancied to nick this 1-0 at 7/1"

Betdirect. are offering money back for all losing bets on the game if it ends 0-0. It's a decent offer considering the lack of goals when these two teams meet. I've gone for Liverpool 1-0 @ 8/1, Draw 1-1 @ 11/2. Chelsea can't win every game this season 1-0.


 Portsmouth vs Newcastle

 Portsmouth (3.05) Draw (3.25) Newcastle (2.5)

Portsmouth are struggling this season. With only the one win all season against Everton (who are rock bottom), things aren't looking good. In their last 2 home games, they played against opponents with a man sent off and still only managed draws. With Lua Lua out and Robert not able to play they are looking weak up front.

Newcastle have found some form recently. Two wins in their last 2 games. The signing of Owen has been a real boost to their squad. Its taken the pressure off Old Man Shearer to score. That was their problem early in the first few matches, they just weren't scoring. Injury to key players have also taken their toll.

I've had Newcastle draw no bet at bet365 at 1.8. However, having just read that Owen is 50/50 to start this, I'd be tempted to actually leave this one alone until its confirmed that he's playing. Without him, I can't see where they are going to get the goals from. Odds have dropped to 1.73 for the draw no bet so it's not the good bet it was at 1.8.

*I've reduced my stakes on this one by hedging on Portsmouth. I am not as confident about this one as I was on Thursday when I put the original bet on. See my Record for details.



 Charlton vs Tottenham

 Charlton (2.6) Draw (3.25) Tottenham (3)

I decided to have this Monday night after listening to the Tottenham/ Fulham game. Tottenham were evenly matched and it was only Defoe's early goal that separated the two teams. After a promising start their form resembles that of some mid-table team. To be fair they have only lost 1 game this season and that was Chelsea. This does exclude the almost full strength team being beat in the Carling Cup by Grimsby. What an embarrassment.

Charlton are going really, really well this year. They too have only lost 1 but have won the rest of their matches. To me, that's an in form team. It'll be interesting to see how they fair against the top teams, as the biggest scalp they have claimed this year is Middlesbrough who have been playing poorly. Birmingham look mid-table but the others West Brom, Wigan and Sunderland look like low finishers.

For a home side on form, the prices are high for this match. The draw no bet option at Blue Square should be snapped up at 1.8. The draws a possibility but I really can't see a mediocre Tottenham team winning this. Interesting the king of the British high street bookmakers, Ladbrokes has priced this up 2.10, 3.20, 3.00, 1X2 which is more like the odds I expecting on this game.



 Asian Handicap Accumulator.

 Better than the National Lottery

Last weeks correct score lucky 15 came in nicely. That turned my £15 in to £59 after Newcastle and Bolton both won 1-0. I’m not going to bother this week with that bet. I can see quite a few draws this weekend.

So instead I am going for a 1000/1+ Asian Handicap accumulator. My £2.50 stake will return £2561.86 if it comes in. Its highly unlikely to pay out fully but theres a chance of getting some returns. I am sure between now and the end of the season I will have a lucky day and get all 10 right.

It’s a lot easier than the 1X2 accumulator that the bookies push because there are only 2 outcomes. The chances of getting 10 correct with 2 outcomes randomly is 1024 to 1 whereas with 3 outcomes is 59049 to 1. Also with Asian Handicaps, a loss doesn’t necessarily end your accumulator. With stakes returned for handicap draws, its possible to get paid out at say 50/1 if a couple of bets draw and one loses half.


  Event Date Event Selections Odds E/W Terms Result
1 01/10/2005 Blackburn v West Brom
(Asian Handicap)
Blackburn -0.5
 
1.875 None To Run
2 01/10/2005 Charlton v Tottenham
(Asian Handicap)
Charlton 0.0, -0.5
 
2.175 None To Run
3 01/10/2005 Fulham v Man Utd
(Asian Handicap)
Fulham +0.5, +1.0
 
1.925 None To Run
4 01/10/2005 Portsmouth v Newcastle
(Asian Handicap)
Newcastle 0.0, -0.5
 
2.05 None To Run
5 01/10/2005 Sunderland v West Ham
(Asian Handicap)
West Ham 0.0
 
2.075 None To Run
6 02/10/2005 Man City v Everton
(Asian Handicap)
Everton +0.5
 
1.975 None To Run
7 02/10/2005 Wigan v Bolton
(Asian Handicap)
Wigan 0.0
 
1.95 None To Run
8 02/10/2005 Arsenal v Birmingham
(Asian Handicap)
Birmingham +1.0, +1.5
 
2.075 None To Run
9 02/10/2005 Aston Villa v Middlesbrough
(Asian Handicap)
Aston Villa 0.0, -0.5
 
1.875 None To Run
10 02/10/2005 Liverpool v Chelsea
(Asian Handicap)
Chelsea 0.0, -0.5
 
2.05 None To Run
  Multiples
Bet Type No of Bets Unit Stake Stake To Win Returns
Ten-Folds at Bet365 1 2.50 2.50 2561.86



 Nigel's Picks

 from Bet365

LIVERPOOL V CHELSEA - REDS CAN NICK IT AT 7/1

Su Oct 2 - 4:00 pm ko - (SS1) It’s a busy week at Anfield, with Chelsea visiting in the week and again in the Premiership on Sunday. Both games are likely to be tense affairs, however, based on previous encounters, goals are likely to be at a premium. The pair met five times last season, and every game was close ending either in a draw or with a single goal deciding the outcome. Only the League Cup Final produced more than one goal, so the main bet has to be ‘under’ 2.5 goals at 4/7. Given the current points standings between the two teams, Liverpool might have the greater need to win the game and, with Chelsea finally conceding last weekend, the Reds are fancied to nick this 1-0 at 7/1 (live ‘In-Play’ betting available).

TOON NAILED ON AT 7/5

In other Premiership games this weekend, Newcastle look nailed on to win at a hapless Pompey. It hasn’t taken the Toon long to find their feet since the arrival of , Michael Owen, and the 7/5 just has to be taken. At the same time Owen looks a fair bet at 5/1 to open the scoring, especially considering we’ll give you your money back. if he scores the last goals in the game instead.

GUNNERS 4/5 FOR DOUBLE STRIKE

Arsenal will almost certainly make it 11 home wins in a row when they face Birmingham, although the 1/3 is prohibitive. That will do for our acca, but singles backers will no doubt be more than happy to take the 4/5 on the Arsenal / Arsenal double result instead. The game is live on Sky Sports (Sunday, 1.30 ko), so we’ll have plenty of ‘In-Play’ markets here too.

Also worth backing this weekend are Blackburn (4/5), who finally look like they’re settling down after a topsy-turvy start, and should be able to see off relegation candidates West Brom, and Charlton (6/4). The Addicks kept up their brilliant start at West Brom, and look strong this season, while Spurs have lacked any potency on the road. A £25 acca on our four fancies this weekend pays out £378.00, which includes a bet365 bonus of 5%.

Weekend Premiership Picks:

Liverpool v Chelsea - ‘Under’ 2.5 goals @ 4/7
Liverpool to win 1-0 @ 7/1
Newcastle to beat Portsmouth @ 7/5;
Michael Owen to score first @ 5/1
Arsenal / Arsenal @ 4/5
Blackburn to beat West Brom @ 4/5
Charlton to beat Tottenham @ 6/4
4-fold on Arsenal, Newcastle, Blackburn, Charlton

All prices are from
bet365


 Gerry's Picks

 By Gerry McDonnell

Can't buy me love, by the Beat All's

In life, I have two goals; (That's one more than Djibril Cisse.) to see world peace in my lifetime, and to make a consistent profit on football betting. Unfortunately, only one of my goals is achievable.

World peace moved a step closer this week as Arsene Wenger offered Alex Ferguson an olive branch. (He ran out of soup and pizza.) The Arsenal manager slammed the supporters who booed Sir Alex off the pitch last weekend, in a show of support for his old nemesis.

The Scot's diminishing popularity is due to the team's formation, 451 and 433 are not just the most common answers in the 'Guess the age of Wayne Rooney's next female companion' competition, they're also the source of the United supporters frustration.

A midweek win in Europe silenced the critics, and a return to form against Fulham will put the issue to sleep. The United manager will not be booed this weekend, although it's a fair possibility that he'll be hissed at some stage. Back Man U at 4/7 to return to winning ways.

The Liverpool v Chelsea clash looks good on paper, but on closer inspection, a dull game is the probable outcome. Liverpool have played four matches against decent opposition; away to Spurs and Boro, and home clashes with Man U and Chelsea, all four finished goalless. Tip of the week? You can't spell Liverpool without two O's. Get on the goalless draw at 8/1.

Alain Perrin's tenure at Fratton Park appears to be drawing to a close. It's bad enough when you haven't won a home match all season, but sarcastically clapping a referee because you saw Wayne Rooney do it on the telly is unforgivable.

Pompey did well to draw both matches against Newcastle last season, Steve Stone snatched an equaliser in both games. Sharon Stone would struggle to score this time around. Back the Geordies to increase Perrin's pain at 5/4.

Everton play Manchester City this weekend, a team they completed the double over last season with Tim Cahill scoring in both matches. Kate Moss scores more than Cahill now, Get on Man City at 8/11.

Chelsea are officially the Beat All's; the following musical specials are all available at Super Soccer.

"The Beat All's" - Chelsea to score three or more goals 9/2
"Simply Red" - Paul Scholes to score; Man Utd to win 1-0 45/1
"Cole Play" - Andy and Ashley Cole both to score 22/1
"Aswad" - Rio Ferdinand to score at anytime 12/1
"Chubby Checker" - Wayne Rooney and Milan Baros both to score 5/1
"Fairground Attraction" - Robbie Savage to score at any time 4/1
"Musical Diouf" - El Hadji Diouf to score two or more goals 8/1
"The Cardigans" - Teddy Sheringham and Andy Cole both to score 6/1
"Shaggy" - Wayne Rooney to score a hat-trick 16/1
"The Red Hot Willy Peppers" - Gallas to score at any time 10/1

Most promising innovation of the week:

If you win by three clear goals, you receive an extra point. Arsene Wenger knows his tomatoes.

Least promising innovation of the week:

Salary capping. Modern day footballers will never accept headgear as payment.

Quote of the week:

"The Gargoyle's not gargling."
Gary Lineker has a go at Steve Bruce's acting skills and questionable appearance in just four words. Well done.

Stat, you're a liberty:

Charlton have found the net 10 times this season; 90 % have been scored away from home.

Acc of the week:

Blackburn
Man Utd
Newcastle
Man City
Aston Villa

The five fold pays over 20/1


Weekend Betting:

Blackburn v West Brom Saturday 1st October 15.00

Blackburn 8/11
Draw 9/4
West Brom 10/3

Get on: Blackburn

If Blackburn can win at Old Trafford, the Baggies will be easy pickings. The last six matches between the two have produced two goals or less, it'll be a comfortable 1-0 win. Match Special:
Blackburn to win 1-0 6/1

Charlton v Tottenham Saturday 1st October 15.00

Charlton 7/5
Draw 11/5
Tottenham 8/5

Get on: Draw

Tottenham have always either won or lost at the Valley in the Premiership, a draw is overdue. Match Special:
Match to finish 1-1 11/2

Fulham v Man Utd Saturday 1st October
15.00

Fulham 4/1
Draw 13/5
Man Utd 4/7

Get on: Man Utd

Surprisingly, United have been held to a 1-1 draw for the last three seasons away at Fulham. Rooney will start this one, (the match, not the
ruck,) United will win.
Match Special:
Man Utd to score four or more goals 11/2

Portsmouth v Newcastle Saturday 1st October 15.00

Portsmouth 7/4
Draw 9/4
Newcastle 5/4

Get on: Newcastle

Pompey are three without a win; the Geordies three without defeat, Get on the Toon Army at 5/4. Match Special:
Michael Owen to score two or more goals 9/2

Sunderland v West Ham Saturday 1st October 17.15
Live on PPV

Sunderland 7/5
Draw 11/5
West Ham 8/5

Get on: Draw

Marlon Harewood scored in both matches against Sunderland in the Championship last season. There's every chance he can net another one. Match Special:
Harewood to score the first goal 5/1

Man City v Everton Sunday 2nd October
11.15 Live on PPV

Man City 8/11
Draw 9/4
Everton 10/3

Get on: Man City

Four games without a win for City now, it's a good job they're playing Everton. Match Special:
Man City to win 1-0 6/1

Wigan v Bolton Sunday 2nd October 13.00

Wigan 6/4
Draw 11/5
Bolton 6/4

Get on: Draw

Bolton have not conceded a goal from open play in their last five matches, Big Sam's men will consolidate their Champions League position. Match Special:
Bolton to keep a clean sheet 15/8

Arsenal v Birmingham Sunday 2nd October 13.30
Live on Sky

Arsenal 2/7
Draw 7/2
Birmingham 8/1

Get on: Arsenal

The Blues have only managed to score in one of their last eight matches against the Arsenal. The Gunners are absolutely nailed on.
Match Special:
Arsenal to score five or more goals 7/1

Aston Villa v Middlesbrough Sunday 2nd October 14.00

Aston Villa Evs
Draw 9/4
Middlesbrough 9/4

Get on: Aston Villa

Aston Villa are averaging 4.5 goals scored a game. (Last 2 games only.) Villa always score against Boro. (Nine goals in their last five
matches.) I suffer from bracket over-use. (3 cases.)
Match Special:
Villa to score three or more goals 4/1

Liverpool v Chelsea Sunday 2nd October
16.00 Live on Sky

Liverpool 9/5
Draw 9/4
Chelsea 6/5

Get on: Draw

Goalless.
Match Special:
No goal scorer in the match 8/1






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