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Weekend Football

by Ben, last updated 2005-10-19 22:41:17

Its a tougher than usual week this one. My Picks are:

Tottenham +1 Asian Handicap.
Charlton +0 Asian Handicap.
Chelsea 1X2.

See below for reasoning plus Nigel and Gerry's picks.

 Everton vs Chelsea

 Everton (11) Draw (4.6) Chelsea (1.4)

Chelsea's dominance of this league is well reported. The last 2 fixtures were potentially tricky ones for the reigning champions. They duly thrashed Liverpool 4-1 and then Bolton 5-1. With the 4-0 demolition of Real Betis midweek, it makes it 13 goals in the last 3 games. I agree with Paddypower that the Premiership race is over.

Everton are looking like getting relegated this year. Injuries and bad luck leave them bottom of the table with just the single win. That's pretty good going considering they've only scored 1 all season. I don't fancy their chances of scoring against the tightest defence in the league. They have no pace up front. Beatie has been disappointing, Bents's pretty average and big Duncan Fergusson is getting old.

There is a serious mis-match. Its almost certainly going to be a Chelsea win. I've gone for that on the 1X2 at 1.44 at bet365. That price has long gone. I think the Asian Handicap offers much better value anyway. 2.1 for Chelsea -1.25 at bet365 is a bargain. The Asian bookies are probably looking at last years results and setting the line accordingly. (both games ended 1-0 to Chelsea). Personally I see this being a thrashing. Recall the 7-0 beating that Arsenal dished out to Everton last year? It wouldn't surprise me if this ended up with a similar score line.

I do like the price of 2.2 for Crespo to score anytime at bluesquare. With Drogba out it looks like Crespo will be starting. The price just looks a bit high considering everyone else has him at odds on. I'll check the confirmed starting line up before I put that one on though.


 Portsmouth vs Charlton

 Portsmouth (2.75) Draw (3.25) Charlton (2.7)

Not a pick on my initial list. I decided to have Charlton. Basically the price of 1.98 at Canbet has tempted me.

Pompey are looking like being in a relegation battle this year. Their home form isn't very good. They managed a 0-0 with Newcastle last time round. Their defensive style of football. With Lualua still out I can't see where they are going to get their goals from.

Charlton haven't been able to maintain their early form. They are still a decent side though and have an excellent away record. The difference between the two sides is that one scores reguarly and the other one doesn't.

At practically evens Charlton +0 at Canbet is a bargain. Pompey have only won 1 all season and that was against Everton. (And even that needed a Duncan Fergussen own goal).


 Man Utd vs Tottenham

 Man Utd (1.62) Draw (3.74) Tottenham (6.5)

Manchester United are struggling with injuries ahead of this match. Rooney may be back in the squad but Giggs is out from a fractured cheekbone. With the other injuries, Ferguson has just 13 senior players, two of which are goal keepers. Ronaldo is possibly facing a rape charge so his mind may be elsewhere. I watched the other day against Lille and they were any good. Even before Scholes got sent off, it never looked like they were going to score.

Tottenham, didn't haven't any midweek football so should be fresher. They've been playing well this year. I did think they were over rated but I have changed my mind. The other week they were 2-0 down against a high flying Charlton and managed to come back to win it 3-2. Last year Tottenham should have won this fixture. Roy Carroll was caught off his line with a 45 metre lob and went in, but the ref didn't give it.

The prices on Tottenham are shortening but are all still good value. Man U are there for the taking. The best bet I have found today is Tottenham draw no bet at bluesquare at 5.0. I've personally gone for the Asian Handicap, the line has generally changed from -1 to minus 0.75. However you can still get Tottenham +1 at 1.752 at Canbet. I prefer the safety of stakes being refunded if Man U win by a single goal.



 Gerry's Picks

 By Gerry McDonnell

All hands to the plump.

My grandmother used to swear by the following advice, if you burn your mouth eating soup, you'll know to blow it the next time, which is unusually good advise from a clearly deranged pensioner.

After opposing Chelsea earlier in the season, i'm now flip-flopping like a fish in a Japanese restaurant. Conventional wisdom tells us that a team can not go through a Premiership season winning every match, but nothing in life is impossible, with the exception of a Peter Crouch hat-trick.

With nine wins out of nine matches under their belt, you can now back Chelsea at 40/1 to win the remainder of their Premiership matches; although the safer bet will be that Jose's men remain unbeaten for the rest of the campaign at 4/1.

Chelsea's performance against Bolton last week was sublime, but like the wife on our wedding night, I feel I have to comment on the disappointing tackle. Michael Essien's challenge on Tal Ben Haim was the only real negative in a superb display, back Chelsea at 4/11 for an easy win at Goodison Park.

The average footballer is not the smartest tool in the box, take Robbie Savage, you'll struggle to find a more average footballer than him. He's on £30,000 a week and he still can't find a hairdresser.

Robbie goes up against Birmingham City for the first time since his acrimonious departure last season. After facing taunts of ‘money grabber' from City fans, and ‘geographically challenged hippy' from a respected betting journalist, Savage will be more fired up than usual for this one. You can back Robbie to be sent off at 16/1.

The controversy surrounding David O'Leary's celebration at the end of the Birmingham derby last week is understandable, I haven't heard of a grown man running towards a pensioner with a big smile on his face since the Wayne Rooney story broke. Aston Villa are still on a high after their derby heroics, take the even money about back to back Villa victories.

Somewhat surprisingly, there have only been 10 goals in the last six meetings between Spurs and Man U, although it would have been 11 if it wasn't for a serious dose of oldtrafforditis from Mark Clattenburg last season. As the plump one is returning to the United starting line up, goals are guaranteed. Man U are a cracking bet at 1/2.

Middlesbrough have been rocked by the news that Abel Xavier has failed a drugs test. Having seen him play, I'm betting they were not performance enhancing. Boro have been inconsistent all season, West Ham are looking better and better, get on the Hammers at 6/5.

The following ‘brace bagging' specials are available at Super Soccer.

"Bent cops" - Darren Bent to score two or more goals 6/1
"The joy of Cesc" - Fabregas to score two or more goals 16/1
"Who let the Drog out" - Didier Drogba to score two or more goals 9/2
"The Zog on the Tyne" - N'Zogbia to score two or more goals 20/1
"Rocking Horse" - Van Nistelrooy to score two or more goals 4/1
"All hands to the plump" - Wayne Rooney to score two or more goals 5/1

Quote of the week:

"Bolton fans were tucking into their pies at half time, with relish."
MOTD commentator Guy Mowbray drops a bombshell; is this how Abramovich made his money?

Stat, you're a liberty:

Every time Wayne Rooney has scored for Man U, United have gone on to win the match. (17 times)

Stat's not so surprising:

Brian McBride has scored more league goals than Cisse, Crouch and Morientes combined.

Acc of the week:

Arsenal
Aston Villa
Fulham
Man Utd
West Ham

The five fold pays out at 28/1.

Weekend Betting:

Blackburn v Birmingham Saturday 22nd October 12.45 Live on Sky

Blackburn 11/10
Draw 2/1
Birmingham 9/4

Get on: Blackburn

A high scoring match historically, there's been 19 goals in the last five meetings. Blues have not won at Ewood Park since the swinging 60's, if Savage doesn't see red, it's a home win.
Match Special:
Blackburn to win 3-1 16/1

Arsenal v Man City Saturday 22nd October 15.00

Arsenal 4/11
Draw 3/1
Man City 13/2

Get on: Arsenal

Arsenal have ruled this match in recent seasons, the last dozen meetings in the league have seen 11 wins for Arsenal and a draw. There is no argument for backing Man City.
Match Special:
Thierry Henry to score a hat-trick 12/1

Aston Villa v Wigan Saturday 22nd October 15.00

Aston Villa Evs
Draw 9/4
Wigan 9/4

Get on: Aston Villa

The Villa will still be on a high from their demolition of local neighbours Birmingham; definite home win.
Match Special:
Steven Davis to score at any time 4/1

Fulham v Liverpool Saturday 22nd October 15.00

Fulham 9/4
Draw 9/4
Liverpool Evs

Get on: Fulham

There were 10 goals scored in the 2 meetings last term, that's more than Liverpool will score away from home all season. Home win.
Match Special:
Fulham to keep a clean sheet 11/5

Man Utd v Tottenham Saturday 22nd October 15.00

Man Utd 1/2
Draw 12/5
Tottenham 11/2

Get on: Man Utd

United only have one home win in the league this season, they're about to double that figure.
Match Special:
Van Nistelrooy to score a hat-trick 14/1

Portsmouth v Charlton Saturday 22nd October 17.15 Live on Premiership Plus

Portsmouth 6/4
Draw 11/5
Charlton 6/4

Get on: Draw

Charlton have a 100% record on the road. That's right, Charlton. Score draw.
Match Special:
Match to finish 2-2 14/1

Newcastle v Sunderland Sunday 23rd October 13.30 Live on Premiership Plus

Newcastle 8/13
Draw 11/5
Sunderland 9/2

Get on: Draw

With four of the last nine derbies ending in a draw, the 11/5 on offer for another looks a value bet.
Match Special:
Stephen Elliott to score at any time 9/4

Bolton v West Brom Sunday 23rd October 15.00

Bolton 8/13
Draw 12/5
West Brom 4/1

Get on: Bolton

Bolton have never beaten the Baggies in the Premiership, until now.
Match Special:
Bolton to score in both halves 13/8

West Ham v Middlesbrough Sunday 23rd October 15.00

West Ham 6/5
Draw 9/4
Middlesbrough 9/5

Get on: West Ham

West Ham enjoy hosting the Boro, the last three matches have all been won 1-0 by the Hammers.
Match Special:
West Ham to win 1-0 6/1

Everton v Chelsea Sunday 23rd October 16.00 Live on Sky

Everton 13/2
Draw 3/1
Chelsea 4/11

Get on: Chelsea

The last four games between Everton and Chelsea have produced a total of three goals; Chelsea could hit five in this one.
Match Special:
Chelsea to score five or more goals 9/1



 Nigels Picks

 from Bet365

NEWCASTLE A DERBY SPECIAL AT 4/6
Su Oct 23 - 1.30 pm ko (PremPlus)
The first Tyne & Wear derby for two and a half years takes place at St James' Park on Sunday, and this could be the perfect opportunity for Newcastle to kick-start their season. The signing of Michael Owen helped to end the Magpies goals drought, but a key player for them could be Emre, who made his comeback at Wigan last week after two months out. The Geordies looked so much more fluent after the Turk came on, and he could be just the man to thread the ball through the way Owen likes. In that case, it's hard to resist a few quid on Michael Owen to net first at 7/2, especially as we'll give you your money back if he scores the last goal instead.

Newcastle have won the last three meetings without conceding (13/8 to win to nil on Saturday) and, if they score first, it should be game over too. Both times they've taken the lead this season they've won, while the six times Sunderland have conceded first have ended in defeat, so a half-time lead for Toon should be money in the bank as far as the outright is concerned (4/7). Once the game kicks off, don't forget to check out our 14 live In-Play markets available through our ‘In-Play Console.'

Live Game Picks:

Newcastle @ 4/7
Michael Owen to score first @ 7/2
‘Mackems Can't Reply' (Newcastle to win to nil) @ 13/8


LATICS ARE UNDERESTIMATED AT 11/4
In other games this weekend, Wigan look to have been underestimated (again) by the layers, and are great value at 11/4 to beat Aston Villa. The home team are hard to fancy on their current form, and have conceded nearly three times as many league goals this season than the Latics. Charlton
(8/5) have made a great start to the season, especially away from home (only team other than Chelsea with a 100% record), and Portsmouth are unlikely to be the first team to inflict an away defeat on the Addicks. With the Chelsea price of 2/5 there for the taking at home to Everton (6/5 to win to nil), we've got the makings of a decent acca this weekend, with our four fancied teams paying out £597.19 for a £25 stake, which includes a bet365 bonus of 5%.

Bet with bet365




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