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Weekend Football
by Ben, last updated 2006-02-15 21:45:37I am going for Premiership victories this weekend in the FA Cup.
Ladbrokes are offering a nice 2.25 for Birmingham to beat Stoke.
Most dead cert has to go to Chelsea at home. At 1.1 tops it doesn't appeal to me though.
Newcastle and Charlton can be combined to make a nice paying 2.05 double at William Hill.
I can't see any of those slipping up to lower league oppostion.
Gerry's Picks
By Gerry McDonnell
Give the Neville his dueMuch like "Mike Riley waves away United's penalty appeal," or "Robbie Savage saved him from being booked there," the phrase "Good old Gary Neville" is rarer than a Peter Crouch screamer. But thanks to Gary's recent jig in front of the Scouse supporters, the match between Liverpool and Man U will now be tastier than a chicken madras after seven pints of lager.
Neville's lucky he's not Spanish, Barcelona fans once threw a pig's head at Luis Figo; Liverpool fans are unlikely to follow suit, Helen Chamberlain works on a Saturday morning. Will Neville react to the inevitable abuse? You can back him to receive a yellow at 12/5, a red at 33/1.
It's not just the fans that will be on Neville's back, Fowler, Carragher and Gerrard will be keeping one eye open, Stevie G is 11/4 to be booked and 16/1 to be carded for a challenge on Red Nev.
I try to avoid discussing men's hairstyles as a general rule, but I think Harry Kewell's decision to wear his hair in a bun was ill advised, Wayne Rooney will probably eat it. Rucker Rooney will be there or thereabouts if it all goes off, he's 7/4 to get his name in the book.
On a related note, there's also a game of football. Liverpool are 11/8 to follow up a convincing win over Arsenal, indulge.
All the romantics would like to see Alan Shearer bow out with a trophy at Newcastle. I am not a romantic; I did give the wife a card for Valentines Day though, a yellow. Any more liberties and she'll be elbowed quicker than a central defender in the vicinity of big Al. The Toon look to have too much for a woeful Southampton, play at 4/11.
Chelsea's ‘Baldrick like' plan to play on an awful surface to stifle Barcelona is somewhat flawed. Their recent form has been poor, and a slip up against Colchester is a distinct possibility. The Champions are without Terry and Gallas, their pitch is a beach and the big Champions League match is in the back of the player's minds. Only the rich and the foolish will back Chelsea at 1/10, the draw at 5/1 is the road for the enlightened.
David O'Leary is rarely a bundle of laughs, but when the Djemba brothers refused to return from the ANC in time to face Newcastle, he was positively apoplectic. O'Leary cheered up when his Villa team went on to murder the Geordies 1-2; a Coleless Man City can expect to be pommeled in a similar fashion, only with a result that justifies the play. Villa are a 6/5 steal.
It's been a magnificent seven wins on the bounce for West Ham, but eight is a mission impossible. Stelios helped Greece to a Euro 2004 victory, he can inspire Bolton to FA Cup glory. Back Sam's men at Even money.
Fair play to the Premier League, after Tottenham failed to beat Sunderland last week, they're making them play again, as a punishment for questioning the whole competition's integrity. Spurs v Wigan is the only Premiership match this weekend, get on Tottenham at 4/6 at fortress White Hart Lane.
Drinking is not big or clever, the weekend specials are:
"JD & Coke" - Defoe and Reo-Coker both to score 16/1
"Sutton comfort" - Chris Sutton to score at any time 11/8
"Half a Murphy's" - Danny Murphy to score and Tottenham to win 2-0 25/1
"Johnny walker" - John Terry to be sent off 50/1
"Blue, none" - Chelsea not to score 8/1
"A nice Claret" - West Ham and Aston Villa both to win 13/2
"Stout" - Wayne Rooney to score two or more goals 15/2
Quote of the week:
"No player is happy after they've been left out. We haven't left him out..."
Steve Bruce after Nicky Butt made way for little Alex.
Stat, you're a liberty:
Arsenal's demise has been grossly exaggerated. The Gunners top the stats table for successful passes and shot accuracy.
Acc of the week:
Liverpool, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Tottenham and a Preston draw all look to be either in the bag or hovering close to the edge, the accer pays out at 34/1.
Weekend Betting:
Liverpool v Man Utd FA Cup Saturday 18th February 12.30 Live on BBC
Liverpool 11/8
Draw 2/1
Man Utd 7/4
Get on: Liverpool
The recent league match at Old Trafford would suggest that these two are evenly matched; home advantage will be the decisive factor. Liverpool haven't scored two goals in a home match since Boxing Day, 1-0 to the Pool.
Match Special:
Liverpool to win 1-0 6/1
Bolton v West Ham FA Cup Saturday 18th February 15.00
Bolton Evs
Draw 9/4
West Ham 9/4
Get on: Bolton
Bolton knocked the Hammers out of the League Cup this season and won their League meet at Upton Park. Big Sam has Al's number, home win.
Match Special:
Stelios to score at any time 9/4
Charlton v Brentford FA Cup Saturday 18th February 15.00
Charlton 4/11
Draw 3/1
Brentford 13/2
Get on: Charlton
They've met three times before in the FA Cup, the Addicks qualified every time. Charlton have kept a clean sheet at the Valley in their last four league games, they won't be stung by the Bees.
Match Special:
Darren Bent to score two or more goals 4/1
Newcastle v Southampton FA Cup Saturday 18th February 17.40 Live on BBC
Newcastle 4/11
Draw 3/1
Southampton 13/2
Get on: Newcastle
The Saints have earned two points from their last six league matches; the Toon army have won two on the bounce. You've got to fancy the Geordies.
Match Special:
Emre to score direct from a free kick 10/1
Preston v Middlesbrough FA Cup Sunday 19th February 14.00
Preston 13/8
Draw 2/1
Middlesbrough 6/4
Get on: Draw
The once mighty Preston have a good record against Boro in the Cup, they've won three of the five meet ups. Preston are unbeaten since September, 25 matches in all competitions. You never know what you'll get with Boro, I'm backing the draw.
Match Special:
Match to finish 1-1 11/2
Stoke v Birmingham FA Cup Sunday 19th February 14.00
Stoke 9/4
Draw 9/4
Birmingham Evs
Get on: Draw
Stoke are in awful form in the Championship, they've drawn three of their last nine matches, and lost the other six; they're the Birmingham of the Championship. The last time Blues visited the Brittania, they won the match 7-0; I can foresee seven less goals in this one.
Match Special:
No goal scorer in the match 8/1
Chelsea v Colchester FA Cup Sunday 19th February 16.00 Live on Sky
Chelsea 1/10
Draw 5/1
Colchester 25/1
Get on: Draw
Chelsea have only won two of their last six matches, Colchester have won 10 of their last 12. The Champions may well win, but you can't be on at 1/10.
Match Special:
Colchester to score one goal or more 9/4
Aston Villa v Man City FA Cup Sunday 19th February 18.30 Live on BBC
Aston Villa 6/5
Draw 11/5
Man City 15/8
Get on: Aston Villa
Villa have only lost 2 of their last 11 matches, and the Newcastle defeat can be disregarded. City have only won once on the road since August, the Villa are a ‘must bet'.
Match Special:
Aston Villa to score three or more goals 9/2
Tottenham v Wigan Premiership Sunday 19th February 13.15 Live on Sky
Tottenham 4/6
Draw 12/5
Wigan 7/2
Get on: Tottenham
Tottenham have only lost once at the Lane all season, it's five without a win for the Latics. Spurs left the JJB with three points earlier this season, make mine a double.
Match Special:
Tottenham to keep a clean sheet 6/5
Bet with bluesquare
Mark's Picks
by Mark Henderson from bet365
FOOTBALL*******
bet365
Rafa's Revenge for Last Gasp Old Trafford Loss
Manchester Utd and Liverpool are separated by 30 miles and 3 Premiership points. That's about it. In terms of talent, there's barely a kitten's whisker between them, so picking a winner in Saturday's FA Cup 5th round match is going to be difficult.
bet365's odds reflects how closely matched these two are (7/5 Liverpool, 2/1 Man Utd) and Rio Ferdinand's last minute winner at Old Trafford last month followed a 0-0 draw at Anfield earlier in the season. Of course, you can't discount the draw here (2/1), so the best value looks to be on the Asian handicap where there is a 0 ball mark-up. Liverpool are available at 1.85 with Man Utd 2.00 (you get your money back if it's a draw). In such tight matches, the 0 ball Asian handicap at bet365 offers incredible value (betting to 104%).
With the draw out of the equation, Liverpool look the better value. They've got over their sticky patch and their home record remains excellent (they've won 9 of their last 10 at Anfield). United, in contrast, have won only one of their last 5 Premiership games on the road and that came at lowly Portsmouth. There is a case for taking the plunge and backing Liverpool to win the game at 7/5, but with the sides so closely matched, caution must be the best policy.
Live Game Pick: Liverpool (to beat Man Utd) @ 1.85
[Asian Handicap] Saturday 12.30 - Live On BBC1
Killer Villa Can Pearce City's Defences @ 11/8
On Sunday at 6.30pm, BBC1 and bet365 are offering us Aston Villa (11/8) against Man City (19/10). The Blues are playing some attractive stuff, but are incredibly inconsistent of late, with 3 wins and 3 defeats in their last 6 Premiership games. City's away record is appalling, in fact, it's almost as bad as Villa's home form. City will be without top-scorer Andy Cole, leaving the untried combination up-front of Vassell (7/1 to score first against his former employers) and £6 million man Georgios Samaras (15/2 to score first). Cole has netted 10 times this season and has formed a useful partnership with Vassell. Losing him is a big blow and could just turn the tie Villa's way.
Live Game Pick: Aston Villa (to beat Man City) @ 11/8
Sunday 18.30 - Live On BBC 1
Toon On The Roeder Recovery for Our Accumulator
The first leg of our weekend accumulator starts on Friday night, where peerless Reading travel to Kenilworth Road. Reading are priced at an amazing 11/10 to beat Luton, who have already suffered home defeats this season to the likes of Stoke, Burnley and Hull. Reading are proving to be different class, so a bet365 11/10 quote looks far too big.
Newcastle (2/5) have won both of their matches under Glenn Roeder, and they should continue their winning ways by beating Southampton at St James' Park on Saturday. Their recent upturn in fortune may be just papering over the cracks and their cup run may well end if they're matched with a Premiership team, but the luck of the draw helped the Magpies so far and they'll be expecting to be in the hat for the quarter finals.
They may be struggling in the league, but Birmingham (Evens) have shown they're still a cut above the Championship teams by beating Reading in the last round. They travel to Stoke on Sunday, who haven't won a game since 17th December, a run which has seen them slip from 5th to 16th place in the Championship. Birmingham may not see the FA Cup as their top priority but they've got a talented squad and should have far too much for demoralised Stoke.
The final leg of our Accumulator is the weekend's only Premiership clash between Tottenham (4/6) and Wigan (4/1). Spurs may have gone off the boil a bit in recent weeks, but their home form has remained solid (6 wins from their last 7). Wigan have lost their way lately, a last-gasp win at Middlesbrough has been their only success of 2006 and they should struggle against Spurs who'll have Mido back after his eventful African Nations Cup trip. Since their great early-season run came to an end, Wigan have won only four of their last 15 league matches.
Accumulator: Reading (11/10) Newcastle (2/5) Birmingham (Evs) Tottenham
(4/6) - £25 Accumulator Pays £245.00 at bet365
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