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FA Cup betting tip

by Ben, last updated 2006-05-10 23:19:03

 Nigel's Picks

 by Nigel Ridgeway

HAMMERS VALUE AT 9/2 TO CAUSE SHOCK
***********************************
Liverpool v West Ham - Saturday May 13th, 3.00pm ko, live on BBC1 / Sky Sports 2
Is the final piece of domestic silverware looks destined for Merseyside? Liverpool are red-hot outright favourites at 2/7 here at bet365 to lift the trophy (West Ham 5/2 outright), and those odds are not surprising considering that the Reds are on fire right now, having 11 straight wins in all competitions (their best run for 17 years!). Not forgetting that they knocked out Chelsea and Man United on their route to Cardiff, and did the double over West Ham in the league.

The evidence for backing Liverpool is compelling and I wouldn’t put anyone off from taking bet365’s 8/13 for them to win in 90 minutes. But if you’re looking for bigger odds, then why not take a crack at their Correct Score market, where a bet on 2-0 and 2-1, at 11/2 and 7/1 respectively, could reap dividends. The bet365 First Goalscorer market is also a good source of value, as they’ll give you your money back if your selected player scores the last goal in the game instead. Unsurprisingly, Liverpool players dominate this market but, as with most Liverpool games, it could pay to look beyond the strikers, and Steven Gerrard looks a decent punt at 11/2 and even better value at 6/4 to score at anytime.

However, while Liverpool are the most likely winners, whether they’re entitled to win like 8/13 shots is another matter, and West Ham (9/2) must have a better chance than their current odds suggest. The Hammers are on a good run of their own having won six of their last 11 matches in all competitions and arrive here on the back of confidence boosting 2-1 win over Spurs last weekend. So, with a shock due (it’s been 11 years since a clear underdog won!), the value call has to be West Ham to win in 90 minutes at a tasty bet365 price of 9/2.

Much bigger odds on West Ham can be found in bet365’s Double Result market, where the Hammers can be backed at 11/1 to be drawing at half time and winning after 90 minutes, compared to 3/1 for Draw / Liverpool. As with all Cup finals, both sides will be playing with a degree of caution leading up to the interval, so (whichever side you fancy) it makes sense to include the half time draw in all such bets. For those of you who fancy the draw in 90 minutes, then bet365’s quote of 13/5 is standout!

The game should be a cracker, and even better odds might be available once the match kicks off via bet365’s Live In-Play Console – up to 14 dynamic markets available. For example, Middlesbrough were as big as 25/1 In-Play during each of their amazing UEFA Cup comeback wins, which just goes to show that big odds (and wins!) are available for those of you who keep the faith and choose this exciting form of betting.

Enjoy the game.

Nigel



 Gerry's Picks

 By Gerry McDonnell

Marlon, Hammer Reds and Pool Wails


In the majority of cases, there is no truth in a supposed national stereotype. The Germans are not all methodical robots; the French are not all obnoxious and the Americans are certainly not all overweight, self important, unintelligent, tambourine banging losers who you'd rather cross the street from rather than risk the possibility of any form of social interaction.

However, there's a certain amount of truth in the stereotype surrounding the typical Brit, it's believed that the Englishman will always support the underdog, and true to form, I'm tipping the Hammers to nail the Reds in the FA Cup final.

It's not an inherited irrational dislike of the favourite that points me towards West Ham, in fact I have no real empathy with the outsider; I once found myself in the position of an underdog, nine months later, I had to marry her, so it's a particularly painful memory. It's simply value for money that makes the Hammers such an excellent investment at Betfair's 3/1 to lift the trophy. West Ham are trading at 11/2 with the same exchange to win the match in 90 minutes, and that's so close to irresistible it's almost whispering seductively.

There's no doubting the fact that the Pool are worthy favourites, Steven Gerrard is a genuine world class operator plucked directly out of the top drawer, but if you put Gerrard to one side, the difference between the two teams is minimal. In fact, there is an argument that would suggest that West Ham's forward line is stronger than Liverpool's; and being an argumentative so and so, I subscribe to that point of view. Stan James have priced Marlon Harewood up at 9/1 to bag the opener and that's worth a little play.

Anton Ferdinand has been a revelation this season, some might say he's outperformed his older, more forgetful sibling. Another cracker from the Ferd should be enough to quell the mediocre Liverpool attack (Fowler's Cup-tied); a Hammers clean sheet is available at 7/2 with Betfred; while a win coupled with a clean sheet appeals at the 17/2 on offer from Boylesports.

Marriage is the fastest route to the poor house, but correct score betting in competitive matches runs it pretty close. As it's a special occasion, Paddy Power's offer of 12/1 about a 1-0 win for the Hammers is a tentative pick.

I've made no secret of my admiration for Yossi Benayoun; the Israeli playmaker has been one of the players of the season. I've miraculously managed to hide a couple of quid from the evil one; I'll be backing Yossi to be the man of the match at 20/1 with Bet Direct.

Super Soccer have knocked up a few big match specials:

"Red red whine" - Liverpool to have a player sent off 9/1
"A Hammer blow" - West Ham to have a player sent off 9/1

"A Re-Pete" - Crouch to score two or more goals 7/1
"The Hare's running" - Harewood to score two or more goals 9/1

"Stevie wonder" - Gerrard to score from outside the area 11/2
"Fletcher scores in strange ways" - Carl Fletcher to score from outside the area 25/1

"Never trust a Hyypi" - Sami Hyypia to be booked 11/4
"Anton deck" - Ferdinand to be booked 7/4

"A slippery Pool side" - Liverpool to win in extra time 6/1
"Hammer bothered" - West Ham to win in extra time 14/1

"They've nicked it" - Liverpool to win on penalties 14/1
"Carroll smiley" - West Ham to win on penalties 14/1

The Betting:

To win the Cup

Liverpool 1/3 Super Soccer
West Ham 3/1 Betfair

90 minutes betting

Liverpool 4/6 Super Soccer
Draw 3/1 Premier Bet
West Ham 11/2 Betfair


There's also a Cup final in Scotland, back Hearts at 4/9 with Ladbrokes.





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