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Football Betting Tips
by Ben, last updated 2011-11-25 22:00:30Premiership Weekend Betting tips
26th - 27th November 2011
26th November 2011Stoke (1.85) Draw (3.6) Blackburn (4.75)
That’s 4 losses in a row for Stoke. As I suspected the Britannia is not the fortress it once was this season. Maybe teams have got used to their one dimensional play. Some of the losses could be blamed on fatigue from Europe but last weekend there was no such excuse. Blackburn snatched a valuable point away at Wigan last weekend. Down to 10 men and 2-1 down, they came back to make it 3-3. It shows the spirit in the team. Robinson got a boot in the head for his troubles. Still no Samba for this game. They have shipped a few too many goals without him this season. No doubt he’d be useful when defending those Stoke set pieces. Looking at the odds, I see much more value in the away win. Blackburn have been a bit unlucky recently and maybe could have picked up more points. Blackburn are 4.75 at VC Bet.
Bolton (3.25) Draw (3.4) Everton (2.4)
The hope that Bolton has turned the corner with that 5-0 home win against Stoke was destroyed last weekend by the 2-1 loss at West Brom. Bolton do have a fair few injuries though and maybe will properly turn the corner when they get them back. Everton managed to beat Wolves 2-1 last weekend recording only their 4th win of the season. The bookies see something in this Everton side I don’t. They work hard but its difficult to see where their goals are going to come from. Cahill hasn’t been scoring like he has done in previous seasons and their strikers are limited. Looking at the odds, I’d have to say Bolton are the value bet but I will go for the draw. It’s a bigger price and Bolton are due a draw at some point. They are 3-0-9 in the league. It’s 3.4 at Ladbrokes.
Chelsea (1.25) Draw (6.5) Wolverhampton (15)
Chelsea’s fortunes have taken a turn for the worse. Only 1 win in the last 4 league games. That was at Blackburn and that could have been a loss too. To top it off, they lost in stoppage time to Leverkusen midweek in the Champions League. They really need to tighten up their defence. Good news is that Cole is fit. Wolves lost 2-1 at Everton last weekend. It was a late goal that sank them but the way they set up with a 4-5-1 formation they deserved to lose. If you set up like that to frustrate the opposition then sooner or later they will break you down. O’Hara and Hunt are suspended for this game so that means big changes in the midfield for Wolves. Anyone else visiting, I’d probably skip the 1.25 on the home win but its Wolves so actually, the 1.25 isn’t that bad. Chelsea have to start winning again sometime and I think its going to be this weekend. It’s 1.25 at VC Bet.
Manchester United (1.4) Draw (5) Newcastle (10)
Another 1-0 win for United last weekend. That’s in a row now for them. With their strike force you’d expect more than that but at least they haven’t been letting goals in. They only managed a 2-2 with Benfica in the Champions League but they were missing Rooney. He’ll be back for this game. Newcastle lost their first game of the season last weekend to City 3-1. They probably don’t need a fixture like this one to follow. I have been impressed with Newcastle’s team spirit this season and was hoping they’d get something from City. I think this will be a tight game and United will win by the odd goal. It’s not going to be as comfortable as the odds suggest but United will win this. It’s 1.4 at most Bookmakers. The win to nil at 2.38 at bluesquare looks good value too. With Vidic back in the side, they have really tightened up their defence and Newcastle will find it hard to score.
Norwich (2.25) Draw (3.5) QPR (3.6)
Norwich took an early lead against Arsenal last weekend but couldn’t compete over the 90 minutes. They were dominated by Arsenal and 2-1 was probably a fair result. I have been impressed with the performances of Norwich but they need to tighten up at the back. The previous home game, they were very fortunate to get a 3-3 draw with Blackburn. QPR have hit some form. They played a cracker against Manchester City but got nothing but then went on to win 3-2 at Stoke. Helguson has found some scoring form and should play in this game. No Barton for this game though. I am leaning more towards QPR but the Barton missing is a big miss in my eye. I think I will play it safe and go for over 2.5 goals. Both teams have leaky defences and are capable of scoring. Its 1.83 at Skybet. A 2-1 either way wouldn’t surprise me.
Sunderland (1.73) Draw (3.8) Wigan (5.5)
Sunderland played out a 0-0 last weekend to Fulham. Nowadays Fulham are a decent side away from home too so not a bad result. I do feel they will start winning soon. That second half display at Bolton makes me think that there is potential in this side and that they are in a false position. Wigan were probably unlucky to draw 3-3 in the last game. One of the goals should have been disallowed for sure. At least it stopped the losing streak. I just don’t think they have the players to not lose this game though. Even though they were unlucky, they were 2-1 up with an extra man on the field. The value is probably on Wigan but I’ve been burnt too many times this season to be backing them. I am not too keen on the Sunderland price but I think they will win this. It’s 1.73 at bet365.
West Brom (4.33) Draw (3.6) Tottenham (1.95)
West Brom’s slump came to an end with a 2-1 win over fellow strugglers Bolton. Odemwingie should be back Saturday and so may partner Long up front. They should become a great strike force if they can both stay fit. West Brom are mid-table and probably will sit there all season. Spurs keep on winning. They were fantastic against Villa and could have easily won more than 2-0. At the moment, only City are ahead of them in the recent form statistics. With the way they are playing they could be City’s biggest challengers for the title. I am guessing the bookies are pricing this game up as if Spurs run cannot last forever. If this was Manchester United it’d be like 1.6 tops. You are nearly getting even money. I am on the 1.95 for Spurs at Boylesports all day long.
Arsenal (1.50) Draw (4.5) Fulham (9)
Maybe I have got Arsenal wrong. Since losing to Spurs, they have won the last 5 games. It does help that Van Persie is on top form. Song and Walcott have been playing well too. They were great against Dortmund midweek in the Champions League. Maybe that could be a negative but Arsenal are a team that don’t generally suffer after midweek games. Fulham played out a dull 0-0 against Sunderland last weekend. Only 2 wins this season though and they were against Wigan and QPR. They should be higher up the table too with their squad but its not happening at the moment for them. I have no doubts they will start winning games sooner or later but not at the Emirates this weekend. Usually, I’d expect Arsenal to be about 1.3ish for a game like this. PaddyPower are offering 1.5. Maybe they are not convinced by this Arsenal revival but I am.
27th November 2011
Swansea City (2.3) Draw (3.5) Aston Villa (3.4)
Swansea lost 1-0 to Manchester United last weekend. That sounds respectable but the game was played at a pedestrian pace and you always had the feeling that United could have stepped it up at any time. That was Swansea’s first home loss of the season. Villa were shocking at Spurs last round. The 2-0 loss was quite flattering towards Villa. They have to step it up this game as they are entering a period of games where they won’t be expected to win many games. With Bent and Heskey up front you can never write them off. Betting wise I will go for the draw. I don’t see any value in the Premiership new boys. They’ve been playing fairly well but I do expect them to drop off at some point, so an X2 game. As the draw is the better price I will go for that. Its 3.5 at Ladbrokes.
Liverpool (2.9) Draw (3.4) Manchester City (2.7)
Game of the weekend. Liverpool beat Chelsea last weekend but the recent form of Chelsea takes a bit of the gloss off that win. At home this season they are 2-4-0 so nothing really that special. No Gerrard but that’s about it for players missing from the Liverpool side. City have been demolishing teams as usual. 3-1 against Newcastle last weekend. They are scoring 3.5 goals on average per game. The big question is how they will react to the loss on Tuesday against Napoli. Last time they lost in Europe at Bayern they came back and won 4-0 at Blackburn. Before that loss in Italy, City were around the 2.3 mark. They’ve drifted up now to 2.7. I’ll be backing them again. Betting on City has been a punters dream this season. They’ve been to Spurs and Manchester United and thrashed them, 5-1 and 6-1 respectively. Liverpool are always over rated. With the exception of maybe Suarez, none of the Liverpool side would get in to the City side. 2.7 for City at William Hill. Another good bet I think is over 2.5 goals. 100% of City’s away games have been over 2.5 goals. That’s 1.83 at Boylesports.
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