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Football betting tips
by Simon, last updated 2009-10-16 03:58:25Premiership Tips - 17th - 19th October 2009
17 October 2009
Aston Villa (4.6) Draw (3.6) Chelsea (1.85)
Big price on the home win here. Villa held their own against Man City last time out (1-1). It could have gone either way so the draw was a fair result. Chelsea beat Liverpool 2-0 but it wasn't a 2-0 game at all. It was very tight and on another day it could have easily been a draw or away win. I'm thinking back to the 3-1 against Wigan just 3 weeks ago. What makes me want to back Chelsea at 1.85 against a Villa team, who on their day can beat anyone? 1X for me, so I'm going with Villa on the Asian Handicap. Odds are 2.08 at Ladbrokes for +0.5 to Villa (win if its a home win or draw).
Arsenal (1.18) Draw (7.5) Birmingham (20)
A big surprise the 6-2 result for Arsenal against Blackburn. Some sloppy defending allowed Blackburn through. Birmingham are not prolific goal scorers and will struggle to get anything here. At 1.17 its obvious. Looking at some worthwhile bets, I am going with the win to nil again. Arsenal have been tight at the back and the 1.91 at bluesquare looks a big price. Hills have it at 1.4, at Bet365 its 1.53. If you have a lot of money which you can afford to lose, Birmingham are 25.0 to lay on Betfair. Thats a 4% return in less than 2 hours. Last time Birmingham beat Arsenal away from home was 1957!
Everton (1.5) Draw (4.2) Wolverhampton (8.5)
Should be a home win this. 1.5 is not a good price though. Everton aren't a team you want to back at 1.5. I said that 1.57 was too short a price last time against Stoke. Wolves are probably a worse team than Stoke, being the only team in the league to lose to Portsmouth so far but have beat Fulham and Wigan this season. Draws seem to have come back in to fashion so I am more comfortable backing that than the 1.5 home win. You can get 4.2 at bet365.
Manchester United (1.22) Draw (6.5) Bolton (15)
The luck of Man U is running out. They still have some though. Losing 2-1 to Sunderland, with 5 minutes to go, Sunderland get a man sent off, then Anton Ferdinand scores an injury time own goal. Bolton got a good draw against an in form Spurs side last time out. Bolton are unbeaten in 4. I'm going to skip this one. At 1.22 Man U should be a nailed on bet but their luck is going to run out sometime.
Portsmouth (5) Draw (3.5) Tottenham (1.83)
A good result for Portsmouth last time with their first win against Wolves. Confidence will be better now and the club finances are more or less sorted. The new money will help and Portsmouth could be a good bet to stay up. I'd wait until after this game though. Spurs were disappointing against Bolton but should win this one. They just have better players and Crouch will be pumped up after scoring 2 midweek. Spurs are 1.83 at bet365.
Stoke (2.15) Draw (3.3) West Ham (3.6)
Odds against for a team which win most of their home games. The record for Stoke isn't looking as impressive this season but we're not too far in and Man U and Chelsea have both been. West Ham are currently bottom of the form table and only 1 win Portsmouth are below them in the overall table. They couldn't even beat a 10 man Fulham side and the point they got was a late one. Stoke home win is 2.15 at William Hill.
Sunderland (4.6) Draw (3.5) Liverpool (1.91)
Sunderland were unlucky not to get a win at Old Trafford the other week. This strong Sunderland team sit in respectable 8th place only 2 points behind Liverpool. Liverpool have doubts over Gerrard and Torres and have a lot of players that have played international this last week. Liverpool should not be odds against for this fixture. Against Chelsea they were a bit shaky, especially when defending corners. I think the 4.6 far too big on the Sunderland win at William Hill.
. If you do fancy Liverpool they are currently 1.91 at bet365. but in all honesty I think they will drift by kick off.
18 October 2009
Blackburn (1.8) Draw (3.6) Burnley (5)
Even though Blackburn lost 6-2 to Arsenal last time, the whole game could have changed if a penalty was given that Blackburn deserved. Scoring 2 at the Emirates is no easy feat. Before then, they did beat an in form Villa. Burnley are 4 home wins and 4 away losses in 8 games. Only thing that is troubling me about this bet is that its a local derby but I still will back the home win. Odds are 1.8 at Ladbrokes.
Wigan (5.5) Draw (3.65) Manchester City (1.73)
To me, the upset of the last round was Hull beating Wigan. I was not happy at all about that. How can you beat Chelsea one week and lose to Hull the next? City did well to get a point out of Villa. In times gone by they would have just withered but they got back in to it and possibly could have won it. Tricky match to call from a betting point of view. Wigan on their day can beat anyone and 5.5 is a huge price for a home win usually. Then again, I think City are genuine title contenders and if it was any of the established big 4, you'd be looking at 1.5 or less. I'll skip this one as I can't decide which bet is best.
19 October 2009
Fulham (1.7) Draw (3.75) Hull (5.5)
Fulham seem to be having problems juggling the European commitments with the league. Last time out against West Ham though, they were unlucky to have a man sent off and unlucky to only get a draw. Hull seemed to have deserved the victory against Wigan. You do get crazy results occasionally. This is most likely be a home win. If Fulham don't win this, they'll be down there fighting it out for survival. Not too over the moon about the odds but its backable price against Hull. 1.7 at PaddyPower
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