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by Ben, last updated 2008-06-16 09:19:28

The shock defeat of Germany means the Croatians are already through to the next round as group winners. Germany can qualify with win or a draw against Austria. Austria need to beat Germany and hope Poland donít win by a greater margin. Poland can qualify but its an even bigger ask, current odds 33/1. Not impossible but unlikely.

 Poland (2.4) Draw (3.6) Croatia (3.05)


Interesting odds for this game. If Croatia had not already qualified as group winners then I am sure they would be favourites. I am not convinced at all about the Poleís being favourites.

Poland can still qualify but they need Austria to beat Germany and then to beat Croatia by a bigger margin. Highly unlikely. Poland will still play for pride and are possibly playing against a weakened Croatian team . I just canít see them winning though. Performances so far have been average at best.

Croatia are through but I do recall a painful memory from not too long again when Croatia had already qualified for Euro 2008 and had nothing to play for. On that night they beat England 3-2 at Wembley. I think the odds setters have got this a little wrong. Croatia have just beaten the pre-tournament favourites.

Bet to consider - Croatia +0.25 at 1.83 on the Asian or 2.1 on the draw no bet at bet365


 Austria (11.5) Draw (5.1) Germany (1.36)


I donít see any value in backing the away win here. Germany were deservedly beaten by Croatia. Sloppy defending and lack of sharpness in front of goal cost them. I can see the Germanís bouncing back with a strong performance here but the 1.36 is not good enough. Unlike the Austrians they do have quality strikers.

Austria lack quality in front of goal. In the first match against Croatia, it was one way traffic at the end. The Croatians were on the ropes. If the game would have gone on for a few more minutes I am sure the Austrians would have equalised. They should have buried Poland but the lack of a quality strike meant that they needed a 92nd minute penalty to get the draw.

Austria are rightfully outsiders but at 11.5 for a home win? Pretty good odds for a one off game. Iíve seen worse outsider bets. This is a no bet game for me. Germans should win but 1.36 is too low and I am not willing to back the outsider this game.




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