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Football Betting Tips
by Ben, last updated 2011-09-24 02:00:09Premiership Weekend Betting tips
24th - 26th September 2011
24th September 2011Manchester City (1.44) Draw (4.7) Everton (9)
First points of the season dropped last weekend for City. 2-0 up and cruising but bad defending allowed Fulham to get a point. Midweek, they put out a second string side and beat Birmingham in the Carling Cup. All the big guns will be back for this game. Everton went behind to Wigan last week but came back well to win 3-1. In their midweek game Carling Cup game, they had to play a strong side to see off West Brom. It definitely gives City the fitness advantage. Looking at the Everton team, I can't see how they are 6th. Their games so far have been against poor opposition though and this will be their first big test. They have a good record at City, winning the last 4. I can't see them making it 5 though. 1.44 is generous in my opinion for this game. City need to bounce back strong after dropping point last weekend. They should really walk this game. I am going to go for over 2.5 goals again though, rather than the straight win. It's 1.7 at bluesquare. 5 out of 5 Premiership games have been overs so far and I can see this being 6 out of 6.
Arsenal (1.44) Draw (4.6) Bolton (8.5)
A terrible result for Arsenal last weekend, losing 4-3 to Blackburn. They played a great first half but just fell apart in the second half. They can't defend set pieces. I think letting in 4 against Blackburn is more worrying than the 8 they let in at Old Trafford. Sagna will be back this weekend so that should help. Also Ramsey and Rosicky back but Djourou and Benayoun are both out injured. Bolton lost to Norwich last weekend. They managed to pull a goal back in the second half when down to 10 men so it wasn't all bad. I was expecting better of them after the thumpings at the hands of Liverpool and Manchester United though. I'm loath to back Arsenal against anyone this season. 1.44 is too low. You'd have got that price last season when Arsenal were winning games but this season, they've only won the one game against Swansea in the league and the bookies are only offering 1.44. I was considering the overs market but at 1.57 that's too low too. Both Arsenal's home games have been unders. I'd rather be backing the under 2.5 goals at 2.4 but I will just skip this fixture.
Chelsea (1.22) Draw (7.2) Swansea City (19.5)
Chelsea played a great game against Manchester United last weekend. They still lost 3-1 but I think that's because United are so strong this season. Some decisions went against them too. Torres scored a cracker and missed a sitter but is looking like he was in his prime at Liverpool. Swansea scored their first goals of the season as well as getting their first win of the season last weekend. They were quite fortunate to win 3-0 considering they only had 4 shots on target. Still a great confidence boosting win for them. I don't see them getting anything here at the Bridge though. 1.22 is all you can expect on the Chelsea win. What's surprising is that Chelsea have only kept one clean sheet this season. They conceded goals against West Brom, Norwich and Sunderland. I think they are due one and the 2.1 at Ladbrokes for Chelsea to win to nil is a great price.
Liverpool (1.4) Draw (5) Wolverhampton (10)
Liverpool will want to forget last week's 4-0 defeat at Spurs. Even when it was 11 vs 11 it was Spurs who were in control of the game. When Liverpool went down to 10 men it was always going to be difficult but when down to 9 men, it was just a case of how many could Spurs score. They bounced back well in the Carling Cup beating Brighton 2-1. Gerrard played a part in that game and could start here. Bellamy showed he still has the pace and can score goals. Wolves had a bad weekend too last week with a 3-0 home defeat to QPR. They were 2-0 down within 10 minutes and were never really in it. It wasn't bad luck, they just played really badly. They bounced back well in the Carling Cup, winning 5-0 against Millwall. Liverpool should win this game but I don't think that 1.4 is a good price at all. I much prefer the over 2.5 goals at 1.73 at bet365.
Newcastle (1.91) Draw (3.6) Blackburn (5)
Another great result for Newcastle last weekend at Villa. They went behind but battled on, got a point and probably deserved the win. I can't work it out. On paper, they should be relegation material but they just keep getting the results. Blackburn got the first win of the season last weekend with a 4-3 victory over Arsenal. 2 own goals helped as well as the fact that Arsenal can't defend set pieces. They followed that up with a 3-2 win over Leyton Orient in the Carling Cup. I will be backing Newcastle in this game though. They are unbeaten this season and are the home side. Its 1.91 at bet365
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West Brom (2.40) Draw (3.3) Fulham (3.35)
West Brom were poor last weekend and gave Swansea their first win of the season. 3 nil was probably a bit flattering to Swansea but still it was a loss in a winnable game for West Brom. They were quite close to knocking Everton out of the Carling Cup but a late Everton goal took it to extra time where Everton won. Hodgson is glad he's out of that competition so it was probably for the best. Fulham came back from 2-0 down to City to draw 2-2 (and probably cost punters a lot of money). Were it not for that point, they'd be bottom of the Premiership. Fulham don't win away from home so its either a home win or a draw. Maybe some gamblers fallacy here but I think West Brom are due a draw. They've played 5, lost 4 and won 1. Also, 3.3 for the draw is a better price than 2.4 for the home win. The draw is 3.3 at Ladbrokes.
Wigan (4.4) Draw (3.65) Tottenham (1.95)
I thought Wigan may have had a change at upsetting Everton last weekend. They did alright in the first half, briefly taking the lead but then feel apart the second half. Rodallega is out for this game which is a big blow for Wigan. Spurs were fantastic against Liverpool. Even before the red cards came out, Spurs were in complete control. Adebayor has fitted in perfectly, scoring a couple of quality goals. I can't believe the bookies have Liverpool as favourites over Spurs for 4th place. In fact, Spurs at 2.88 to finish in the top is a great long term bet at Bet365. I am backing Spurs this game. Its 1.95 at Paddypower. Spurs have actually kept 4 cleans sheets in their last 4 games in all competitions. They are set up not to concede. I wouldn't put anyone off having Spurs to win to nil at 3.4 at Ladbrokes.
Stoke (7) Draw (4.33) Manchester United (1.57)
I can't work out what happened to Stoke last weekend. They were inept and lost 4-0 at Sunderland. Maybe it was the Europa League game that made them tired. The Britannia is usually a fortress but Manchester United have taken all 3 points from them every time they have visited. Stoke did beat Liverpool here 1-0 a couple of weeks ago but it was backs against the wall stuff. United just keep on winning. The 3-1 win over Chelsea last weekend was no surprise. They outclassed Chelsea and it really should have been more. Midweek, their second stringers managed to beat Leeds 3-0 without getting out of 1st gear. Hernandez should be back in the team after recovering from injury. With Nani and Young on the wings they look unstoppable. As with the City game though, I'll go for over 2.5 goals rather than the straight win. United have had 5 games that have finished over 2.5 goals. It's 1.83 at Boylesports which I think is better than 1.57 for the United win.
25th September 2011
QPR (2.3) Draw (3.3) Aston Villa (3.4)
QPR were due a win last weekend and got it against Wolves. With their new signings the do look like they are going to stay up. Barton looks like he's fitted in straight away. That's 2 clean sheets in a row for QPR. Villa look like they will struggle this year. A very disappointing performance by them last weekend against Newcastle. It finished 1-1 but Newcastle were looking the more likely to score. No Bent or Heskey this week. Jenas may start for the first time though. Villa played a strong team in the Carling Cup midweek and were beaten by a weakened Bolton team at home. I think they will struggle again this game. QPR for me. It's 2.3 at Betfred.
26th September 2011
Norwich (2.6) Draw (3.4) Sunderland (3)
Norwich got their first win of the season last weekend against Bolton. It did help that Bolton went down to 10 men at the end of the first half but Norwich were already 2-0 up then. Sunderland dominated a tired Stoke side last weekend and won 4-0. Bendtner still not scored but did play a part in the Gardener's goal. I haven't really seen enough of these teams to decide on a winner. Draw looks a good option though, both teams on 5 points after 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. Biggest price on the coupon too. Its 3.4 at bet365.
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