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Football betting tips
by Simon, last updated 2009-11-20 21:20:32Premiership Tips - 21st - 22nd November 2009
21 November 2009
Liverpool (1.95) Draw (3.5) Manchester City (4.5)
Lucky Liverpool last time out against Birmingham. A dodgey penalty allowed Liverpool to salvage a point. City have gone on a strange long run of draws in a season that has been lacking draws. Whats shocking about that is the most of the teams they have been playing are at the foot of the table. I guess they are not top 4 material after all. Very rarely do you get odds of even money for Liverpool at home. I am willing to back them as they seem to do better when people write them off. Some injury worries but Gerrard will be back so not too concerned about Torres not playing. You can get2.0 for Liverpool -0.5 on the Asian Handicap at bet365 (exactly the same bet as a home win but better odds).
Birmingham (2.5) Draw (3.3) Fulham (3)
Some good form in the last 3 games for Birmingham. A win against Sunderland and draws against Man City and Liverpool. The new owners seems to have given Birmingham a new lease of life. Fulham are in good form too. Only 1 defeat in the last 6 and that was to Arsenal. Looks like Hodgson has them set up to win at home and draw away. Tricky game to call but I would say the value is on the draw. Its 3.3 at Ladbrokes
Burnley (3.4) Draw (3.4) Aston Villa (2.25)
Burnley picked up their first away point of the season last time out against City, they were 2-0 and when it was 3-2 to City you thought they might get crushed, but the fought back and came away with a good draw. Turf Moor has been a fortress and the game against Wigan is their only blight. Villa bounced back from a disappointing run of form with a 5-1 to Bolton. Previously, though they has the 2-1 defeat to West Ham and 1-1 draws against Everton and Wolves. Their away record isn't as good as it was last year. I think the bookies are still underestimating Burnley at home. With that in mind I am going for Burnley to win, its 3.4 at bet365.
Chelsea (1.17) Draw (7) Wolverhampton (23)
This would be a nailed on home win but for the injuries to key Chelsea players. Lampard, Deco, Drogba and Ballack are out while Terry faces a late fitness test. At 1.17 its probably not worth it. You can dutch 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 4-0 for even money. Much better than the 1.73 for Chelsea to win to nil.
Hull (2.88) Draw (3.4) West Ham (2.6)
Who'd have thought that these this game would have such a significant bearing on the relegation battle at the start of the season. Who ever loses has a good chance of going down. Hull were fortunate to get an injury time winner against Stoke but it shows that Phil Brown has got them fired up. West Ham looked like they were picking up some form after beating Villa but then losing to a depleted Everton puts doubt in my mind. Still no Carlton Cole for the hammers. I can't see why they are favourites for this game. Tricky game to price up but I'd have Hull as slight favourites so the 2.88 at bet365 is a good price.
Sunderland (6) Draw (3.8) Arsenal (1.67)
Sunderland have suffered a dip in form recently after reaching the heights of getting a point at Old Trafford and Beating Liverpool. Good performance at Spurs but a missed penalty and missed chances meant they went away with nothing. Arsenal are top of the league in the current form table. WWWDWW. That draw was away to West Ham though who everyone seems to be beating. The major thing is Van Perie being out. This will be a big test for Arsenal and the 1.57 is not good enough. I am much more comfortable backing the home win at 6.0 at Ladbrokes
Manchester United (1.4) Draw (4.5) Everton (9.5)
Man U were unlucky at Chelsea not to win. For once they actually played well. The international break has been better for Everton than Man U. I usually skip Man U games as odds are poor and you never know what type of performance they are going to put out and how much luck they are going to get. This time though, I am going to be backing Everton on the Asian Handicap at bet365. Its +1.25 priced at 1.9. (Basically, Everton win or draw and get paid out at 1.9, Man U win by 1 goal, get paid out at 1.45, Man U win by 2 goals or more, lose bet). Out of 6 home league games, they've only won 1 game but 2 or more goals and that was a 2-0 against Blackburn.
22 November 2009
Bolton (2.3) Draw (3.4) Blackburn (3.5)
After a good run for Bolton they look like they have hit a brick wall. In the last 2 league games they conceded 9 and scored 1. If you throw in the Carling Cup result too it looks really bad for them (they lost 4-0) Blackburn are 0-0-5 away from home this season. I think they can get a point from here though. Its a local derby and Bolton are there for the taking. If it wasn't for the poor away form, I'd definitely be on the away win but I think they draw is the best bet at Skybet.
Tottenham (1.5) Draw (4.5) Wigan (8.0)
Spurs are not in good form. The 2-0 against Sunderland was fortunate. Wigan are this inconsistent team who can beat anyone on their day. Looking at the game with no odds, I'd go for a Spurs win but looking at the odds, you are getting 8.0 for a team that can beat anyone. Spurs recently lost to Stoke at home. You can get 8.0 at PaddyPower
for Wigan.
Stoke (2.15) Draw (3.4) Portsmouth (3.75)
Stoke come in to this off a loss again Hull. It was a 90th minute goal and the draw would have been a fairer result. It was away from home and the Britannia is a different place. Maybe not the fortress it was last season but still very hard to beat. Portsmouth showed home good signs recently that they shouldn't be second favourite to go down but the 3-1 loss to Blackburn has put an end to their mini revival. Its Stoke for me this game. They recently lost 4-0 to Portsmouth in the Carling Cup. Even though it was a reserve side, Stoke will want revenge for this. Odds are 2.15 at William Hill
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