Sports Betting Blog

After a crazy Christmas and New Year, I am hoping that the results will get back to normal. I would recommend against betting any big money until things calm down again or take advantage of the wild results and back the outsider.

Tonight, sees Liverpool visit Manchester City. The odds are 1.9 City, Draw 3.4 and 4.2 Liverpool. About a month ago, I would have said City all day long. You wouldn’t have been getting 1.9 though. I’d still back City tonight though. At home, they have been invincible going 9-0-0. The only problem, I see for City is that they have become predictable. They remind me of Arsenal with their pretty passes and no end results. If the opposition puts 11 men behind the ball then its easy to keep them out, like West Brom and Sunderland did.

Liverpool went though a bit of bad patch with draws to Wigan and Blackburn. They pulled a bit of pride back with the win against Newcastle though. Gerrard is back now too. Bellamy and Carroll seem to play well up front together but Suarez will be back for this game.

As I said, I see a shade of value in backing City at 1.9. Top make the deal even sweeter though is that Bet365 are having one of their super special offers.

simply place a bet before kick-off, then once the game starts place another bet on any In-Play market. If your FIRST In-Play bet loses we will refund this stake, up to the same value as your largest pre-match bet (max £50*).

I’ll stick my first bet on City and see how the game pans out. If Liverpool look likeliest, I’ll just hedge using the free bet. This is a great offer from Bet365. New players also get the free bet sign up offer too.

Sign up here.

Paddypower have a book open on how many competitions Manchester City will win this season. The top price is for all 4 trophies (Premier League Champions League FA Cup and Carling Cup
) at 125/1.

The full set of odds are below.
No Trophies 2.3
Premier League Carling Cup 6.5
Premier League FA Cup 10
Premier League and Champions League 13
FA Cup Carling Cup 23
Champions League and Carling Cup 26
Barclays Premier League, FA Cup and Carling Cup 34
Barclays Premier League, UEFA Champions League and Carling Cup 34
Champions League and FA Cup 41
Barclays Premier League, UEFA Champions League and FA Cup 51
UEFA Champions League, FA Cup and Carling Cup 91
Premier League Champions League FA Cup and Carling Cup 126

Bet on the market here.

City are currently favourites to win the Premiership too which is just on the ordinary outright market. This is currently 1.91 (10/11). With the displays of City’s nearest rivals today being very poor, its hard to argue with that. Manchester United were fortunate to beat Sunderland and so were Chelsea to beat Blackburn. Arsenal may have eased past West Brom but that may well just be West Brom being extremely poor. In my opinion Spurs look like Manchester City’s greatest challengers. After the first couple of beatings, they haven’t really done anything wrong.

Manchester United are 200/1 for the quad. Chelsea, 500/1 and Arsenal 1000/1. None of them have any appeal as I think that the Spanish Giants or Bayern Munch will beat those teams but City have improved so much that I can see them beating anyone in Europe too. A cheeky £10 would return £1250 if City pull it off. Bet here. £50 free matched bet for new users.

Bookmaker William Hill have made Alan Shearer the favourite to become the next Cardiff manager after a string of bets were placed on him around the world. Hills have cut the odds of Shearer from 10/1 to 1/3 after being heavily backed. The gamble started with some large bets in Cork, Ireland, then some large bets in West London and then an Australian client put AU$1000 on him.

‘This gamble has taken some odd geographical twists and turns but they all point to the same destination – Cardiff for Shearer!’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

William hill – next permanent Cardiff manager…..1/3 Shearer; 5/2 Mackay; 7/1 Robins; 10/1 Hughes; 11/1 Clark; 12/1 Davies; Holloway; 14 Hughton.

We are still no wiser on who is going to be the next Villa Manger. Current favourite McLeish is unlikely as the Villa fans are unlikely to accept the former Birmingham City Boss.

William hill next Villa boss 4/6 McLeish; 5/2 Hughes; 4/1 Moyes; 20/1 Coyle; Poyet.

Ruud Gullit, rumoured to be on the verge of the sack at his current club is a 25/1 shot with hills to become the next permanent Chelsea manager for which Hiddink is 4/11 favourite with Hughes and Redknapp both 4/1; Villas-Boas 10/1

William hill- next Birmingham manager…2/1 Cotterill; Hughton; 7/2 Davies; 6/1 Zola; 15/2 Di Matteo; 10/1 Curbishley; Jones.

Bet here at William Hill and get a free £25 matched bet.

With the resignation of Mark Hughes after just 1 season, Fulham are looking for a new manager. William Hills have Steve McClaren and Carlo Ancelotti joint 4/1 favourites to be the next permanent Fulham manager.

Full Odds from William Hill

Carlo Ancelotti 4/1
Steve McClaren 4/1
Lee Clark 11/2
Alan Curbishley 11/2
Dave Jones 6/1
Diego Maradona 8/1
Gianfranco Zola 8/1
Roy Hodgson 10/1
Rafa Benitez 10/1
Martin Jol 12/1
Chris Coleman 16/1
Chris Hughton 16/1
Billy Davies 20/1
Sven Goran Erikkson 20/1
Claudio Ranieri 25/1
Ian Holloway 25/1
Kevin Keegan 25/1
Neil Warnock 25/1
Paul Pescisolido 33/1
Bob Bradley 33/1
Ian Dowie 33/1
Avram Grant 33/1
Gary Megson 40/1

Rumours in the Telegraph suggest that Fulham were lining up Benitez as insurance if Huges was leaving for Villa. At 10/1 that could worth a small bet.

Bet at William Hill.

UPDATE

Martin O’Neill is now 7/2 favourite.

With news that Gerard Houllier is set to leave Aston Villa by the end of next week, bookmakers William Hill have opened a book on who will be the next Villa Manager. Early favourite is Mark Hughes at 11/10. The American owners wanted Hughes originally after Martin O’Neill quit but Hughes had just signed a deal with Fulham. The Telegraph is reporting that Villa are confident they can prize Hughes away from Fulham.

Current William Hill Odds for Next Permanent manager of Aston Villa.

Avram Grant 50/1
Bob Bradley 33/1
Carlo Ancelotti 33/1
Chris Hughton 20/1
David Moyes 4/1
Fabio Capello 66/1
Frank Rijkaard 40/1
Gareth Southgate 33/1
Gary McAllister 25/1
Gus Poyet 25/1
Jurgen Klinsmann 25/1
Kevin MacDonald 25/1
Louis Van Gaal 25/1
Mark Hughes 11/10 Click here to bet.
Martin Jol 20/1
Martin O’Neill 40/1
Owen Coyle 25/1
Paul Lambert 33/1
Rafa Benitez 11/4
Roberto Martinez 5/1
Simon Grayson 40/1
Steve Bruce 33/1
Steve McClaren 10/1
Stuart Pearce 25/1

Click here to bet on the next Aston Villa

Update
A lot of money has gone on Steve McClaren.

After 6 years, Dave Jones has been sacked as Cardiff Manager. He was until today, the longest serving Championship manager but after not securing promotion this year, the board have let him go. Bookmakers have already priced up the next Cardiff Manager odds already with Billy Davis the early favourites.

With the manager markets, the prices will swing wildly based on rumours and the weight of money on each candidate. Here are the current odds.
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Paddypower had one of the better Champions League specials. If Barcelona won the game in 90 minutes they would refund all losing first/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast bets. According to their press office they refunded €3000000.

Paddy Power have refunded a record breaking €3,000,000 in losing bets placed on tonight’s Champions League Final.

Paddy Power said “This Money-Back Special was chosen for our customers by our customers so I had a feeling it was always going to end up this way. A three million quid refund has raised the bar to new heights, but that’s what happens when you bet with Paddy Power.”

Personally, I’d say thats an exaggeration. Maximum refund was £100 per person so to lose 3 million euros they must have had around 30,000 people all losing the maximum amount. I can’t really see that myself. I am guessing they had 3 million wagered on the game and had to refund a percentage of those bets. Back in 2008, they lost 1.5 million euros on the Ronaldo special bet in which they refunded ALL losing bets, after Ronaldo scored.

Barcelona winning probably cost them more in payouts. All the big hitters would have been backing Barcelona to win. 3-1 was 17/1 at Paddypower which was a popular scoreline to have. It was no doubt an expensive night for Paddypower but I doubt they refunded 3 million euros.

Victor Chandlers refund was also triggered when Wayne Rooney scored the equaliser for Manchester United. Bet365 who’s offer was probably the most generous probably lost a shed load too. I had my free in running bet on Barcelona at half time at 2.05. Anyone watching the game would have seen it was men against boys and only Barcelona were going to win that game.

Tonight see the game of the season with arguably the best team in the world vs the best team in England. Barcelona vs Manchester United should be a cracker of a game. The bookmakers are offering a range of special money back offers. Usually these are poor but some bookies have put out some cracking specials. Here are the top 3 in no particular order.

Bet365.
Place a bet before kick-off on the big game, then once it starts place another bet on any In-Play market and if your FIRST In-Play bet loses, Bet365 will refund your stake, up to the value of their largest pre-match bet. The maximum refund £50 so to get maximum value, place £50 on a pre-match market and £50 in running. We’ll be using our free bet to hedge in running. Bet365 also have their standard football offer. Have a pre-match Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time or Scorecast bet and if the game finishes 0-0 Bet365 will refund all losing bets on these markets! Some extra insurance on your bets.

If you are a new member, you also get a £200 free bet basket. Click here to visit the site

Paddypower
Paddypower have gone big with a money back special based on Barcelona winning. If Barcelona win this match in normal time Paddy Power will refund correct score, first/last goalscorer, and scorecast singles on the match.. More about this offer on the main page. Maximum refund £100.

Paddypower are offering a free £25 matched bet for new users too. Click here to visit the site.

Victor Chandler
VC Bet are offering to refund Correct Score, First/Last Goalscorer and HT/FT bets if Messi or Rooney score anytime including extra time. Maximum refund £50. They’ve generously included HT/FT bets.
Click here to visit the site. New members get £25 matched free.
.

In case you are wondering, we’ve had,
VCBet, £50 Barcelona HT/FT 3.25.
Bet365, £50 Barcelona HT, 2.75. with £50 to play in running depending on how the game goes.
Paddypower, £20 2-1, £40 1-0, £40 2-0 all on Barcelona at odds of 8.5, 6 and 8.5 respectively.

Today sees the second leg of the Manchester United Chelsea Champions League clash. Manchester United are leading 1-0 after the first leg and have the crucial away goal. A home win or draw will see them through to the semi final.

The first leg caught out Irish bookmaker, Paddypower when they offered to refund selected bets if Manchester United won the game. See the post here. They appear to have learned their lesson and this week are only offering a refund if Rooney scores the last goal of the game. This is not really a good bet. Rooney is about 5/1 to score last.

Luckily for us punters, VC Bet are offering a very generous offer. If Rooney or Torres score ANYTIME, then they will refund selected losing bets as free bets (so not quite as good as a refund but decent non the less). Considering that Rooney is 2.15 to score anytime and Torres is 2.8, either to score is pretty good odds.

From their Website

If WAYNE ROONEY or FERNANDO TORRES score at anytime we’ll refund all losing First Goalscorer, Correct Score & Double Result (HT/FT) bets as a FREE BET!

Maximum refund £50 per person. Applies to singles only placed prior to kick-off. Internet, telephone & mobile bets only. 90 mins only. Free bets credited Wednesday. Free bets must be used within 30 days.

The way I’ve played this it to back, on the half time full time market. I think its going to be a Manchester United win or a draw. I’ve gone, United/ United, Draw/ Draw and Draw /United. The bet pays out at about 1.5 if any outcome happens. The good thing about it is that if Torres or Rooney score then I will get my money back no matter what. The sweet thing is that if one of the bets wins then I get my money back on the two losing bets too. Eg, If it is United HT/FT, I win £35 plus get £40 in free bets to spend later. £70 is probably the optimal amount to bet as the maximum free bet refund is £50.

Man Utd v Chelsea
Half Time / Full Time – 90 Mins
Man Utd – Man Utd
Odds: 13/5
Stake(s): 29.10
Possible Return: £ 104.76

Man Utd v Chelsea
Half Time / Full Time – 90 Mins
Draw – Draw
Odds: 4/1
Stake(s): 20.95
Possible Return: £ 104.75

Man Utd v Chelsea
Half Time / Full Time – 90 Mins
Draw – Man Utd
Odds: 17/4
Stake(s): 19.95
Possible Return: £ 104.74

If you have no VC bet account then you can sign up here and get a free £25 bet.

This years stand out tie in the Champions League has got to Manchester United vs Chelsea. In terms of betting, this is a tricky game to call. Chelsea played their best so far this season recently to come back from 1-0 to beat United 2-1. At the weekend, Chelsea stumbled whereas United came back from 2-0 down to win 4-2.

For this game, I have no strong opinions. Any result wouldn’t be surprising. I could make a case for the home win, draw or away win. In terms of betting, I have placed my wagers at Paddypower. They have an amazing special for this game.

If Man Utd win this match, Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st/Last goalscorer, Correct Score & Scorecast singles on the match.

This is much better than the normal offers Paddy Power and other bookmakers run. Manchester United are 12/5 (3.4) to win this game. Usually, these special offers have pretty poor situations for paying out, eg, some midfielder scoring the last goal of the game.

This offer also includes correct scores which is interesting. I’ve personally gone for 1-0, 0-0 and 1-1. I think it will be tight and the odd goal will win it. If Manchester United do win, then paddypower will refund those correct scores. If they don’t win then those scores are the most likely IMO to payout.

Paddy Power were famously burnt a few years ago in the Champions League when they offered to refund ALL losing bets if ’30+ goal a season’ Ronaldo scored anytime. He did and Paddy Power lost a lot of money.

Click here to visit the site and get a free £25 matched bet if you are a new customer.

Its international friendly time. As always, you can watch selected games free with Bet365. All these games are streamed live free from the Bet365.com site. Click here to sign up if you have not already got an account.

Games that are getting streamed live. Kick off times shown in bold.

Greece v Canada 15:00
FYR Macedonia v Cameroon 16:45
Croatia v Czech Republic 17:00
Azerbaijan v Hungary 17:00
Turkey v South Korea 18:30
Cyprus vs Romania 18:30
Sweden vs Ukraine 19:00
Albania v Slovenia 19:00
Luxembourg v Slovakia 19:15
Belgium v Finland 19:30
Holland v Austria 19:30
Poland v Norway 19:30
France v Brazil 20:00

The pick of the games has to be France vs Brazil.
Current odds from Bet365.
France 2.70 Draw 3.20 Brazil 2.60

The bookies are finding it hard to separate these teams, suggesting that Brazil might not be at full strength. Surely a full strength Brazilian team would be about even money against the current France team. Click here to bet.

After the sacking of Alan Irvine, Skybet have opened a book on who will be the next permanent manager of Sheffield Wednesday.

Next Permanent Manager of Sheffield Wednesday Odds

Megson, G 8/11
Johnson, G evens
Keane, R. 2/1
Bond, K 4/1
Keegan, K 6/1
Hoddle, G. 8/1
Parkinson, P. 8/1
Sheridan, J 10/1
Ince, P. 10/1
Wise, D. 10/1
Keen, K. 10/1
Dowie, I 10/1
Nilsson, R. 14/1
Sousa, P 16/1
Worthington, N 16/1
O’Driscoll, S 20/1
Hughton, C. 20/1
Hill, K 25/1
Cotterill, S 25/1
McInnes, D 33/1
Robins, M 33/1
Turner, C 33/1
O’Neill, M. 33/1
Tisdale, P 33/1
Magilton, J 33/1
Burley, G 33/1
Hart, P 40/1
Windass, D 40/1
Coleman, C 40/1
Di Canio, P 40/1

As with all these manager bets, there is always a lot of speculation and the early favourites don’t always get the job. There could be some value in betting on a long shot. Click here to visit skybet and see the latest odds for the next owls manager. (its under football – manager specials). .