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A betting system that works.

by Ben

A betting system which is based on predicting the draw. Its so simple anyone can follow it.

As featured on http://www.inside-edge-mag.co.uk/ get you 12 Month subsciption for just £5 here

I have reasoned that, if two teams are evenly matched then there is a greater chance of there being a draw. The way to spot this is simple. Just look at the Asian Handicap. A +0 handicap implies there's not much between the teams.

I've done the maths based on data from Football Betting Data on the English Premiership. Betting on the draw (at the best bookie odds) when the Asian Handicap is +0 (at Bet365) would have produced a yield of 4% last season and 7.5% the season before. I would go back further but the data before doesn't contain Asian Handicap information.

This season, the yield so far is a whopping 46.5% (on 8th October 2005). Can this continue? Almost certainly not at 46.5%, but I can see this showing higher profits than in previous seasons.

Why? Because the number of goals scored is down this year. Less goals mean more chance of a draw. Betting blindly on draws will still produce a loss but with a little help from the Asian Bookies, betting selectively on draws should be very profitable this year. This system may work in other leagues too.

The online editor of Inside Edge pointed out all the winners on the system this season were all unders so far. This is to be expected as the higher draws (2-2, 3-3 and 4-4) rarely happen.

What's interesting about the unders thing is that betting on 'no first goalscorer' and '1-1' could enhance the odds. Say the NFGS was 8/1 and '1-1' was 6/1, then the equivalent odds for the draw are 3.94. Thatís a lot better than the 3.25 odds the system relies on.

So there you have it. A simple, easy to follow system which has made a profit in the last 2 seasons and is making a profit this season too.

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